2021 · Week 4

Final

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Ben Roethlisberger

17·27

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

Lambeau Field · outdoors · grass · 67°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

GB -6.5

Total

45

Model margin

+4.4est.

GB perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Steelers

Packers

Win probability

  • Packers
  • Steelers

How each play moved the game.

Packers winsSteelers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Steelersedge mapPackers
  • -0.051EPA / play+0.136
  • 40.2%Success rate48.9%
  • -0.037EPA / dropback+0.222
  • -0.078EPA / rush-0.003
  • 7.1%Explosive rate8.5%
  • -2.66CPOE+4.71
  • 39.0%Third-down rate43.8%
  • 60.3%Red-zone TD rate61.0%
  • 1.65Points / drive2.45
  • 1.7%Turnover rate1.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 5–3 since 1999

Meetings average 54.1 points. GB are 5-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W8GB @ PIT35–25GB
2023 · W10GB @ PIT19–23PIT
2017 · W12GB @ PIT28–31PIT
2013 · W16PIT @ GB38–31PIT
2010 · playoffsPIT @ GB25–31GB
2009 · W15GB @ PIT36–37PIT
2005 · W9PIT @ GB20–10PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPIT–GB
PITQ1 15:00875Touchdown7–0
GBQ1 10:04838Punt7–0
PITQ1 4:1035Punt7–0
GBQ1 3:131364Touchdown7–7
PITQ2 13:223-2Turnover7–7
GBQ2 12:28433Touchdown7–14
PITQ2 10:551051Field goal10–14
GBQ2 5:411271Field goal10–17
PITQ2 0:0500End of half10–17
GBQ3 15:001158Field goal10–20
PITQ3 9:31512Punt10–20
GBQ3 7:01440Touchdown10–27
PITQ3 4:46731Turnover on downs10–27
GBQ3 2:33229Turnover10–27
PITQ3 1:41628Punt10–27
GBQ4 14:1431Punt10–27
PITQ4 12:35718Turnover on downs10–27
GBQ4 10:05720Turnover on downs10–27
PITQ4 6:57960Touchdown17–27
GBQ4 4:04615Punt17–27
PITQ4 1:5124Turnover17–27
GBQ4 1:1100End of half17–27

Box score

Individual performances

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ben Roethlisberger26/4023211

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Najee Harris15624.11
Benny Snell100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Diontae Johnson913921
James Washington45690
Najee Harris67290
JuJu Smith-Schuster28110
Pat Freiermuth11110
Zach Gentry11100
Eric Ebron2280
Ray-Ray McCloud1120
Benny Snell0100

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers20/3624820

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
AJ Dillon15815.40
Aaron Jones15483.20
Aaron Rodgers320.71

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Randall Cobb56692
Davante Adams611640
Aaron Jones34510
Allen Lazard23330
AJ Dillon11160
Robert Tonyan2780
Marcedes Lewis1270
Equanimeous St. Brown0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +6.53.6%6.6%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Steelers.

Half-point at risk

4.90%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

60.8%

Expected total

45.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.70
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.41