Closing spread
GB -6.5
Total
45
Model margin
+4.4est.
GB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Packers
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.051EPA / play+0.136
- 40.2%Success rate48.9%
- -0.037EPA / dropback+0.222
- -0.078EPA / rush-0.003
- 7.1%Explosive rate8.5%
- -2.66CPOE+4.71
- 39.0%Third-down rate43.8%
- 60.3%Red-zone TD rate61.0%
- 1.65Points / drive2.45
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 5–3 since 1999
Meetings average 54.1 points. GB are 5-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 26/40 | 232 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Najee Harris | 15 | 62 | 4.1 | 1 |
| Benny Snell | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Diontae Johnson | 9 | 13 | 92 | 1 |
| James Washington | 4 | 5 | 69 | 0 |
| Najee Harris | 6 | 7 | 29 | 0 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 2 | 8 | 11 | 0 |
| Pat Freiermuth | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Zach Gentry | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Eric Ebron | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Ray-Ray McCloud | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Benny Snell | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 20/36 | 248 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AJ Dillon | 15 | 81 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Aaron Jones | 15 | 48 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randall Cobb | 5 | 6 | 69 | 2 |
| Davante Adams | 6 | 11 | 64 | 0 |
| Aaron Jones | 3 | 4 | 51 | 0 |
| Allen Lazard | 2 | 3 | 33 | 0 |
| AJ Dillon | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Robert Tonyan | 2 | 7 | 8 | 0 |
| Marcedes Lewis | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Equanimeous St. Brown | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
4.90%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.8%
Expected total
45.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.70
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.41