Closing spread
PIT -1
Total
43.5
Model margin
-4.8est.
GB perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Packers
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.001EPA / play+0.072
- 42.4%Success rate45.4%
- +0.096EPA / dropback+0.115
- -0.173EPA / rush+0.003
- 8.3%Explosive rate10.1%
- +3.30CPOE+2.82
- 37.6%Third-down rate40.8%
- 61.8%Red-zone TD rate54.0%
- 1.82Points / drive2.19
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 5–3 since 1999
Meetings average 54.1 points. GB are 5-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 16/28 | 167 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Le'Veon Bell | 26 | 124 | 4.8 | 1 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 1 |
| Felix Jones | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Jonathan Dwyer | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Brown | 6 | 13 | 105 | 0 |
| David Paulson | 1 | 1 | 30 | 0 |
| Heath Miller | 3 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| Matt Spaeth | 1 | 1 | 11 | 1 |
| Jerricho Cotchery | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 2 | 2 | 7 | 1 |
| Jonathan Dwyer | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Will Johnson | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Le'Veon Bell | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| Felix Jones | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Flynn | 21/39 | 232 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eddie Lacy | 15 | 84 | 5.6 | 2 |
| James Starks | 10 | 47 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Matt Flynn | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Jones | 9 | 12 | 84 | 0 |
| Jarrett Boykin | 5 | 13 | 54 | 1 |
| Jordy Nelson | 3 | 5 | 46 | 0 |
| James Starks | 1 | 1 | 23 | 0 |
| Andrew Quarless | 1 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
| Eddie Lacy | 2 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
2.09%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
36.3%
Expected total
45.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.59
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-6.75
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-4.85