2013 · Week 16

Final

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Ben Roethlisberger

38·31

Packers

Green Bay

QB Matt Flynn

Lambeau Field · outdoors · grass · 23°F · wind 13mph

Closing spread

PIT -1

Total

43.5

Model margin

-4.8est.

GB perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Steelers

Packers

Win probability

  • Packers
  • Steelers

How each play moved the game.

Packers winsSteelers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Steelersedge mapPackers
  • -0.001EPA / play+0.072
  • 42.4%Success rate45.4%
  • +0.096EPA / dropback+0.115
  • -0.173EPA / rush+0.003
  • 8.3%Explosive rate10.1%
  • +3.30CPOE+2.82
  • 37.6%Third-down rate40.8%
  • 61.8%Red-zone TD rate54.0%
  • 1.82Points / drive2.19
  • 2.3%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 5–3 since 1999

Meetings average 54.1 points. GB are 5-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W8GB @ PIT35–25GB
2023 · W10GB @ PIT19–23PIT
2021 · W4PIT @ GB17–27GB
2017 · W12GB @ PIT28–31PIT
2010 · playoffsPIT @ GB25–31GB
2009 · W15GB @ PIT36–37PIT
2005 · W9PIT @ GB20–10PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPIT–GB
GBQ1 15:0031Punt0–0
PITQ1 13:00634Punt0–0
GBQ1 9:211387Touchdown0–7
PITQ1 4:02773Touchdown7–7
GBQ1 0:01520Punt7–7
PITQ2 12:0438Punt7–7
GBQ2 10:07723Punt7–7
PITQ2 6:49514Punt7–7
PITQ2 4:5100Punt7–7
GBQ2 4:42771Touchdown7–14
PITQ2 1:53732Field goal10–14
GBQ2 0:0200End of half10–14
PITQ3 15:00662Touchdown17–14
GBQ3 11:511539Punt17–14
PITQ3 6:3211Turnover17–14
GBQ3 6:2640Touchdown17–21
PITQ3 5:19542Touchdown23–21
PITQ3 2:00111Touchdown24–21
PITQ3 1:5500Touchdown24–21
GBQ3 1:5553Punt31–21
PITQ3 0:0910Turnover31–21
GBQ4 15:00629Field goal31–24
PITQ4 12:0436Punt31–24
GBQ4 10:27658Touchdown31–31
PITQ4 7:14948Punt31–31
GBQ4 3:0039Turnover31–31
PITQ4 1:51512Touchdown38–31
GBQ4 1:25430End of half38–31

Box score

Individual performances

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ben Roethlisberger16/2816721

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Le'Veon Bell261244.81
Ben Roethlisberger11313.01
Felix Jones177.00
Jonathan Dwyer177.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Antonio Brown6131050
David Paulson11300
Heath Miller34170
Matt Spaeth11111
Jerricho Cotchery1290
Emmanuel Sanders2271
Jonathan Dwyer1170
Will Johnson1160
Le'Veon Bell1350
Felix Jones0100

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Flynn21/3923211

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Eddie Lacy15845.62
James Starks10474.70
Matt Flynn284.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
James Jones912840
Jarrett Boykin513541
Jordy Nelson35460
James Starks11230
Andrew Quarless14190
Eddie Lacy2360

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -13.0%3.2%4.9%3.2%7.5%6.5%3.5%

Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Steelers.

Half-point at risk

2.09%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

36.3%

Expected total

45.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.59
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-6.75
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-4.85