Closing spread
PIT -6.5
Total
42
Model margin
+4.8est.
GB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Packers
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.057EPA / play-0.059
- 43.9%Success rate42.0%
- +0.202EPA / dropback-0.003
- -0.067EPA / rush-0.158
- 9.7%Explosive rate6.6%
- 35.7%Third-down rate41.1%
- 63.9%Red-zone TD rate51.1%
- 1.99Points / drive1.29
- 2.0%Turnover rate3.8%
- -0.084EPA / play allowed-0.052
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 5–3 since 1999
Meetings average 54.1 points. GB are 5-3 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | PIT–GB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | Q1 15:00 | 6 | 60 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| GB | Q1 11:40 | 3 | 17 | Turnover | 3–0 |
| PIT | Q1 10:21 | 6 | 11 | Field goal | 6–0 |
| GB | Q1 6:45 | 9 | 50 | Field goal | 6–3 |
| PIT | Q1 1:00 | 3 | 13 | Turnover | 6–3 |
| GB | Q2 14:52 | 4 | -10 | Opp touchdown | 13–3 |
| GB | Q2 13:44 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 13–3 |
| PIT | Q2 12:47 | 5 | 14 | Punt | 13–3 |
| GB | Q2 9:57 | 19 | 79 | Missed field goal | 13–3 |
| PIT | Q2 0:27 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 13–3 |
| GB | Q3 15:00 | 13 | 70 | Touchdown | 13–10 |
| PIT | Q3 7:26 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 13–10 |
| GB | Q3 5:47 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 13–10 |
| PIT | Q3 4:50 | 9 | 48 | Missed field goal | 13–10 |
| GB | Q4 14:51 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 13–10 |
| PIT | Q4 13:23 | 7 | 23 | Punt | 13–10 |
| GB | Q4 9:33 | 3 | 5 | Turnover | 13–10 |
| PIT | Q4 8:11 | 4 | 20 | Touchdown | 20–10 |
| GB | Q4 6:16 | 6 | 41 | Turnover on downs | 20–10 |
| PIT | Q4 3:39 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 20–10 |
| GB | Q4 3:09 | 4 | 4 | Turnover on downs | 20–10 |
| PIT | Q4 2:38 | 1 | 17 | End of half | 20–10 |
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Batch | 9/16 | 65 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duce Staley | 15 | 76 | 5.1 | 1 |
| Antwaan Randle El | 2 | 41 | 20.5 | 0 |
| Charlie Batch | 8 | 14 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Willie Parker | 5 | 13 | 2.6 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 20/35 | 214 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Samkon Gado | 26 | 62 | 2.4 | 1 |
| ReShard Lee | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Brett Favre | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
2.40%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.8%
Expected total
43.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.83
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+4.98
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+4.79