Closing spread
PIT -6.5
Total
42
Model margin
+4.8est.
GB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Packers
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.057EPA / play-0.059
- 43.9%Success rate42.0%
- +0.202EPA / dropback-0.003
- -0.067EPA / rush-0.158
- 9.7%Explosive rate6.6%
- 35.7%Third-down rate41.1%
- 63.9%Red-zone TD rate51.1%
- 1.99Points / drive1.29
- 2.0%Turnover rate3.8%
- -0.084EPA / play allowed-0.052
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 5–3 since 1999
Meetings average 54.1 points. GB are 5-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Batch | 9/16 | 65 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duce Staley | 15 | 76 | 5.1 | 1 |
| Antwaan Randle El | 2 | 41 | 20.5 | 0 |
| Charlie Batch | 8 | 14 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Willie Parker | 5 | 13 | 2.6 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 20/35 | 214 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Samkon Gado | 26 | 62 | 2.4 | 1 |
| ReShard Lee | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Brett Favre | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
2.40%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.8%
Expected total
43.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.83
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+4.98
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+4.79