Closing spread
GB -3
Total
46.5
Model margin
+1.6est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
7.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Steelers
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.122EPA / play+0.027
- 48.0%Success rate44.1%
- +0.274EPA / dropback+0.046
- -0.076EPA / rush-0.001
- 10.3%Explosive rate8.3%
- +5.62CPOE+0.58
- 48.8%Third-down rate40.4%
- 62.5%Red-zone TD rate66.8%
- 2.39Points / drive2.11
- 1.3%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 5–3 since 1999
Meetings average 54.1 points. PIT are 3-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Love | 29/37 | 360 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emanuel Wilson | 11 | 61 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Josh Jacobs | 13 | 33 | 2.5 | 1 |
| Savion Williams | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Jordan Love | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tucker Kraft | 7 | 9 | 143 | 2 |
| Christian Watson | 4 | 4 | 85 | 0 |
| Romeo Doubs | 3 | 6 | 44 | 0 |
| Malik Heath | 3 | 3 | 29 | 0 |
| Emanuel Wilson | 3 | 4 | 26 | 0 |
| Josh Jacobs | 3 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Savion Williams | 1 | 1 | 8 | 1 |
| Luke Musgrave | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| John FitzPatrick | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Matthew Golden | 3 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 24/36 | 219 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylen Warren | 13 | 62 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Kenny Gainwell | 5 | 31 | 6.2 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roman Wilson | 4 | 5 | 74 | 1 |
| DK Metcalf | 5 | 7 | 55 | 1 |
| Calvin Austin III | 4 | 6 | 28 | 0 |
| Jonnu Smith | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Ben Skowronek | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Pat Freiermuth | 3 | 4 | 13 | 0 |
| Jaylen Warren | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Kenny Gainwell | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
7.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.4%
Expected total
45.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.33
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+1.61