2025 · Week 8

Final

Packers

Green Bay

QB Jordan Love

35·25

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Aaron Rodgers

Acrisure Stadium · outdoors · grass · 46°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

GB -3

Total

46.5

Model margin

+1.6est.

PIT perspective

Push chance

7.1%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Packers

Steelers

Win probability

  • Steelers
  • Packers

How each play moved the game.

Steelers winsPackers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Packersedge mapSteelers
  • +0.122EPA / play+0.027
  • 48.0%Success rate44.1%
  • +0.274EPA / dropback+0.046
  • -0.076EPA / rush-0.001
  • 10.3%Explosive rate8.3%
  • +5.62CPOE+0.58
  • 48.8%Third-down rate40.4%
  • 62.5%Red-zone TD rate66.8%
  • 2.39Points / drive2.11
  • 1.3%Turnover rate1.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 5–3 since 1999

Meetings average 54.1 points. PIT are 3-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W10GB @ PIT19–23PIT
2021 · W4PIT @ GB17–27GB
2017 · W12GB @ PIT28–31PIT
2013 · W16PIT @ GB38–31PIT
2010 · playoffsPIT @ GB25–31GB
2009 · W15GB @ PIT36–37PIT
2005 · W9PIT @ GB20–10PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultGB–PIT
GBQ1 15:0039Punt0–0
PITQ1 13:26752Field goal0–3
GBQ1 8:41667Touchdown7–3
PITQ1 5:0547Punt7–3
GBQ1 3:20643Missed field goal7–3
PITQ2 14:50521Field goal7–6
GBQ2 12:1831Punt7–6
PITQ2 11:06935Field goal7–9
GBQ2 5:5237Punt7–9
PITQ2 4:061063Touchdown7–16
GBQ2 0:34438Missed field goal7–16
PITQ3 15:0032Punt7–16
GBQ3 14:01990Touchdown14–16
PITQ3 8:48639Field goal14–19
GBQ3 5:341078Touchdown22–19
PITQ4 14:553-3Punt22–19
GBQ4 12:58445Touchdown29–19
PITQ4 10:5736Punt29–19
GBQ4 8:56747Field goal32–19
PITQ4 5:2823Turnover32–19
GBQ4 5:07419Field goal35–19
PITQ4 3:591070Touchdown35–25
GBQ4 2:07311End of half35–25

Box score

Individual performances

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jordan Love29/3736030

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Emanuel Wilson11615.50
Josh Jacobs13332.51
Savion Williams111.00
Jordan Love1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tucker Kraft791432
Christian Watson44850
Romeo Doubs36440
Malik Heath33290
Emanuel Wilson34260
Josh Jacobs33120
Savion Williams1181
Luke Musgrave1150
John FitzPatrick1140
Matthew Golden3340

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers24/3621920

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jaylen Warren13624.80
Kenny Gainwell5316.20

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Roman Wilson45741
DK Metcalf57551
Calvin Austin III46280
Jonnu Smith23170
Ben Skowronek11130
Pat Freiermuth34130
Jaylen Warren23110
Kenny Gainwell2240

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -34.1%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Packers.

Half-point at risk

7.13%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.4%

Expected total

45.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.33
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.24
  • Expected margin+1.61