Closing spread
PIT -3
Total
38.5
Model margin
+0.9est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Steelers
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.075EPA / play-0.064
- 45.1%Success rate42.3%
- +0.155EPA / dropback-0.060
- -0.054EPA / rush-0.069
- 9.2%Explosive rate8.8%
- +1.07CPOE-0.21
- 47.4%Third-down rate37.3%
- 56.0%Red-zone TD rate58.6%
- 2.16Points / drive1.54
- 1.5%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 5–3 since 1999
Meetings average 54.1 points. PIT are 3-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Love | 21/40 | 289 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AJ Dillon | 9 | 70 | 7.8 | 0 |
| Aaron Jones | 13 | 35 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Jordan Love | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayden Reed | 5 | 5 | 84 | 1 |
| Luke Musgrave | 2 | 4 | 64 | 0 |
| Dontayvion Wicks | 3 | 4 | 51 | 0 |
| Romeo Doubs | 3 | 5 | 31 | 1 |
| Christian Watson | 2 | 7 | 23 | 0 |
| Aaron Jones | 4 | 6 | 19 | 0 |
| AJ Dillon | 1 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Tucker Kraft | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenny Pickett | 14/23 | 126 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylen Warren | 15 | 101 | 6.7 | 1 |
| Najee Harris | 16 | 82 | 5.1 | 1 |
| Kenny Pickett | 4 | 16 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Calvin Austin III | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Pickens | 3 | 4 | 45 | 0 |
| Diontae Johnson | 1 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| Najee Harris | 3 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
| Jaylen Warren | 2 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
| Darnell Washington | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Calvin Austin III | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
7.43%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.4%
Expected total
45.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.07
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+0.87