2023 · Week 10

Final

Packers

Green Bay

QB Jordan Love

19·23

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Kenny Pickett

Acrisure Stadium · outdoors · grass · 50°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

PIT -3

Total

38.5

Model margin

+0.9est.

PIT perspective

Push chance

7.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Packers

Steelers

Win probability

  • Steelers
  • Packers

How each play moved the game.

Steelers winsPackers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Packersedge mapSteelers
  • +0.075EPA / play-0.064
  • 45.1%Success rate42.3%
  • +0.155EPA / dropback-0.060
  • -0.054EPA / rush-0.069
  • 9.2%Explosive rate8.8%
  • +1.07CPOE-0.21
  • 47.4%Third-down rate37.3%
  • 56.0%Red-zone TD rate58.6%
  • 2.16Points / drive1.54
  • 1.5%Turnover rate1.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 5–3 since 1999

Meetings average 54.1 points. PIT are 3-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W8GB @ PIT35–25GB
2021 · W4PIT @ GB17–27GB
2017 · W12GB @ PIT28–31PIT
2013 · W16PIT @ GB38–31PIT
2010 · playoffsPIT @ GB25–31GB
2009 · W15GB @ PIT36–37PIT
2005 · W9PIT @ GB20–10PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultGB–PIT
PITQ1 15:001058Touchdown0–7
GBQ1 10:011069Touchdown7–7
PITQ1 4:421255Touchdown7–14
GBQ2 14:1232Punt7–14
PITQ2 13:06825Field goal7–17
GBQ2 8:08880Touchdown13–17
PITQ2 4:1431Punt13–17
GBQ2 3:1236Punt13–17
PITQ2 2:35537Punt13–17
GBQ2 1:2024End of half13–17
GBQ3 15:001131Field goal16–17
PITQ3 9:08410Punt16–17
GBQ3 7:10868Field goal19–17
PITQ3 3:04435Field goal19–20
GBQ3 1:0540Punt19–20
PITQ4 14:06527Punt19–20
GBQ4 11:45613Punt19–20
PITQ4 9:24749Field goal19–23
GBQ4 5:14661Turnover19–23
PITQ4 3:20727Punt19–23
GBQ4 0:59665Turnover19–23

Box score

Individual performances

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jordan Love21/4028922

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
AJ Dillon9707.80
Aaron Jones13352.70
Jordan Love2115.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jayden Reed55841
Luke Musgrave24640
Dontayvion Wicks34510
Romeo Doubs35311
Christian Watson27230
Aaron Jones46190
AJ Dillon13110
Tucker Kraft1360

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kenny Pickett14/2312600

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jaylen Warren151016.71
Najee Harris16825.11
Kenny Pickett4164.00
Calvin Austin III166.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
George Pickens34450
Diontae Johnson14170
Najee Harris34140
Jaylen Warren2490
Darnell Washington1160
Calvin Austin III1130

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +34.3%2.8%7.2%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Packers.

Half-point at risk

7.43%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.4%

Expected total

45.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.07
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.24
  • Expected margin+0.87