Closing spread
PIT -2.5
Total
41.5
Model margin
-1.1est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Steelers
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.124EPA / play+0.043
- 44.9%Success rate44.8%
- +0.213EPA / dropback+0.124
- -0.018EPA / rush-0.083
- 8.5%Explosive rate10.2%
- +3.74CPOE+4.22
- 47.0%Third-down rate40.3%
- 65.6%Red-zone TD rate55.0%
- 2.22Points / drive1.83
- 1.4%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 5–3 since 1999
Meetings average 54.1 points. PIT are 3-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 26/48 | 383 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Grant | 8 | 37 | 4.6 | 1 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 3 | 22 | 7.3 | 1 |
| Brandon Jackson | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greg Jennings | 5 | 11 | 118 | 1 |
| Donald Driver | 3 | 9 | 76 | 0 |
| Jermichael Finley | 9 | 10 | 74 | 1 |
| Jordy Nelson | 4 | 5 | 71 | 0 |
| James Jones | 2 | 7 | 36 | 1 |
| Donald Lee | 2 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| Brandon Jackson | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 29/46 | 503 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashard Mendenhall | 11 | 38 | 3.5 | 1 |
| Willie Parker | 6 | 22 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Santonio Holmes | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hines Ward | 7 | 13 | 126 | 0 |
| Heath Miller | 7 | 10 | 118 | 0 |
| Mike Wallace | 2 | 4 | 79 | 2 |
| Santonio Holmes | 3 | 7 | 77 | 0 |
| Rashard Mendenhall | 6 | 6 | 73 | 0 |
| Mewelde Moore | 3 | 5 | 25 | 1 |
| Stefan Logan | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
7.21%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
46.0%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.87
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin-1.14