2009 · Week 15

Final

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

36·37

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Ben Roethlisberger

Heinz Field · outdoors · dessograss · 30°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

PIT -2.5

Total

41.5

Model margin

-1.1est.

PIT perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Packers

Steelers

Win probability

  • Steelers
  • Packers

How each play moved the game.

Steelers winsPackers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Packersedge mapSteelers
  • +0.124EPA / play+0.043
  • 44.9%Success rate44.8%
  • +0.213EPA / dropback+0.124
  • -0.018EPA / rush-0.083
  • 8.5%Explosive rate10.2%
  • +3.74CPOE+4.22
  • 47.0%Third-down rate40.3%
  • 65.6%Red-zone TD rate55.0%
  • 2.22Points / drive1.83
  • 1.4%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 5–3 since 1999

Meetings average 54.1 points. PIT are 3-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W8GB @ PIT35–25GB
2023 · W10GB @ PIT19–23PIT
2021 · W4PIT @ GB17–27GB
2017 · W12GB @ PIT28–31PIT
2013 · W16PIT @ GB38–31PIT
2010 · playoffsPIT @ GB25–31GB
2005 · W9PIT @ GB20–10PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultGB–PIT
GBQ1 15:0030Punt0–6
PITQ1 14:28160Touchdown0–7
GBQ1 14:18314Punt0–7
PITQ1 13:03430Punt0–7
GBQ1 11:29388Touchdown7–7
PITQ1 9:561155Touchdown7–14
GBQ1 3:4736Punt7–14
PITQ1 2:4135Punt7–14
GBQ1 1:04657Missed field goal7–14
PITQ2 13:21525Punt7–14
GBQ2 10:24413Punt7–14
PITQ2 8:4642Punt7–14
GBQ2 6:55852Touchdown14–14
PITQ2 3:04771Touchdown14–21
GBQ2 0:26535End of half14–21
PITQ3 15:00524Punt14–21
GBQ3 12:2835Punt14–21
PITQ3 10:481165Field goal14–24
GBQ3 4:361365Touchdown21–24
PITQ4 13:30747Field goal21–27
GBQ4 9:45462Touchdown28–27
PITQ4 7:49764Field goal28–30
GBQ4 3:58415Touchdown28–30
GBQ4 2:17224Touchdown36–30
GBQ4 2:0600Touchdown36–30
PITQ4 2:061589Touchdown36–37

Box score

Individual performances

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers26/4838330

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ryan Grant8374.61
Aaron Rodgers3227.31
Brandon Jackson111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Greg Jennings5111181
Donald Driver39760
Jermichael Finley910741
Jordy Nelson45710
James Jones27361
Donald Lee2340
Brandon Jackson1240

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ben Roethlisberger29/4650330

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rashard Mendenhall11383.51
Willie Parker6223.70
Ben Roethlisberger177.00
Santonio Holmes1-2-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Hines Ward7131260
Heath Miller7101180
Mike Wallace24792
Santonio Holmes37770
Rashard Mendenhall66730
Mewelde Moore35251
Stefan Logan1150

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.52.8%4.6%3.0%7.5%7.2%2.8%4.2%

Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Packers.

Half-point at risk

7.21%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

46.0%

Expected total

43.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.87
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.24
  • Expected margin-1.14