2011 · Postseason
Week 17
Week 17: 16 games played. Patriots produced the widest margin at 28 points; the tightest finish was Titans at Texans, decided by 1.
Briefing7
Packers start Matt Flynn rather than Aaron Rodgers, which the model treats as worth about 2.6 points against them.
Texans start Jake Delhomme rather than Matt Schaub, which the model treats as worth about 7.6 points against them.
Colts start Dan Orlovsky rather than Curtis Painter, which the model treats as worth about 7.3 points for them.
Vikings start Joe Webb rather than Christian Ponder, which the model treats as worth about 6.8 points for them.
Packers lead the league in offensive EPA per play at +0.230, 0.032 clear of second.
Ravens have been the most efficient defence, allowing -0.126 EPA per play.
The model's widest disagreement with the market is 49ers at Rams, where it rates Rams about 13.6 points better than the line. Worth understanding, not worth backing — the model's picks have gone 49.93% against the spread historically, below the 52.38% needed to break even.
What this season can and cannot show1
- Next Gen Stats begin in 2016.
Slate
