Closing spread
CHI -7
Total
35.5
Model margin
-3.5est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
4.8%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.041EPA / play-0.259
- 39.6%Success rate35.1%
- +0.005EPA / dropback-0.267
- -0.104EPA / rush-0.242
- 8.0%Explosive rate6.0%
- -0.76CPOE-8.47
- 36.4%Third-down rate25.9%
- 60.1%Red-zone TD rate36.3%
- 1.47Points / drive0.79
- 2.3%Turnover rate3.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CHI lead 6–4 since 1999
Meetings average 45.1 points. ARI are 6-3-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Cutler | 12/26 | 146 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Forte | 12 | 88 | 7.3 | 1 |
| Kahlil Bell | 13 | 32 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Armando Allen | 5 | 24 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Jay Cutler | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Marshall | 6 | 15 | 68 | 1 |
| Alshon Jeffery | 1 | 4 | 35 | 0 |
| Kellen Davis | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Earl Bennett | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Matt Forte | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Armando Allen | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Evan Rodriguez | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Lindley | 17/30 | 141 | 0 | 1 |
| Brian Hoyer | 11/19 | 105 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LaRod Stephens-Howling | 10 | 19 | 1.9 | 0 |
| William Powell | 4 | 7 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Chris Wells | 4 | 3 | 0.8 | 0 |
| Jay Feely | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Larry Fitzgerald | 8 | 12 | 111 | 0 |
| Michael Floyd | 6 | 8 | 47 | 0 |
| Andre Roberts | 5 | 12 | 44 | 0 |
| William Powell | 3 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| Alfonso Smith | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| LaRon Byrd | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Jim Dray | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Jeff King | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| Rob Housler | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| LaRod Stephens-Howling | 1 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
4.83%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
39.7%
Expected total
39.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.20
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-1.79
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-3.50