2012 · Week 16

Final

Bears

Chicago

QB Jay Cutler

28·13

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Ryan Lindley

University of Phoenix Stadium · closed · grass

Closing spread

CHI -7

Total

35.5

Model margin

-3.5est.

ARI perspective

Push chance

4.8%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bears

Cardinals

Win probability

  • Cardinals
  • Bears

How each play moved the game.

Cardinals winsBears wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bearsedge mapCardinals
  • -0.041EPA / play-0.259
  • 39.6%Success rate35.1%
  • +0.005EPA / dropback-0.267
  • -0.104EPA / rush-0.242
  • 8.0%Explosive rate6.0%
  • -0.76CPOE-8.47
  • 36.4%Third-down rate25.9%
  • 60.1%Red-zone TD rate36.3%
  • 1.47Points / drive0.79
  • 2.3%Turnover rate3.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CHI lead 6–4 since 1999

Meetings average 45.1 points. ARI are 6-3-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W9CHI @ ARI9–29ARI
2023 · W16ARI @ CHI16–27CHI
2021 · W13ARI @ CHI33–22ARI
2018 · W3CHI @ ARI16–14CHI
2015 · W2ARI @ CHI48–23ARI
2009 · W9ARI @ CHI41–21ARI
2006 · W6CHI @ ARI24–23CHI
2003 · W13ARI @ CHI3–28CHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCHI–ARI
ARIQ1 15:00616Punt0–0
CHIQ1 12:06815Punt0–0
ARIQ1 9:352-3Opp touchdown7–0
ARIQ1 8:535-1Punt7–0
CHIQ1 6:233-1Punt7–0
ARIQ1 5:25958Field goal7–3
CHIQ1 0:37572Touchdown14–3
ARIQ2 13:12517Punt14–3
CHIQ2 10:4434Punt14–3
ARIQ2 9:5540Turnover on downs14–3
CHIQ2 9:36420Punt14–3
ARIQ2 8:1869Punt14–3
ARIQ2 5:05519Field goal14–6
CHIQ2 2:18680Touchdown21–6
ARIQ2 0:19428End of half21–6
CHIQ3 15:00413Punt21–6
ARIQ3 12:5430Opp touchdown28–6
ARIQ3 12:39525Punt28–6
CHIQ3 10:26946Punt28–6
ARIQ3 4:59635Punt28–6
CHIQ3 1:4335Punt28–6
ARIQ3 0:25610Punt28–6
CHIQ4 12:50518Punt28–6
ARIQ4 9:54726Punt28–6
CHIQ4 6:5738Punt28–6
ARIQ4 4:3329Turnover28–6
CHIQ4 3:5438Opp touchdown28–13
CHIQ4 1:46311End of half28–13

Box score

Individual performances

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jay Cutler12/2614610

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Matt Forte12887.31
Kahlil Bell13322.50
Armando Allen5244.80
Jay Cutler382.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brandon Marshall615681
Alshon Jeffery14350
Kellen Davis22190
Earl Bennett11160
Matt Forte1170
Armando Allen1210
Evan Rodriguez0100

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Lindley17/3014101
Brian Hoyer11/1910501

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LaRod Stephens-Howling10191.90
William Powell471.80
Chris Wells430.80
Jay Feely100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Larry Fitzgerald8121110
Michael Floyd68470
Andre Roberts512440
William Powell34210
Alfonso Smith1280
LaRon Byrd1180
Jim Dray1130
Jeff King1310
Rob Housler0300
LaRod Stephens-Howling12-30

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -72.8%3.1%4.8%3.1%7.5%6.8%3.8%

Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Bears.

Half-point at risk

4.83%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

39.7%

Expected total

39.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.20
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-1.79
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-3.50