2018 · Week 3

Final

Bears

Chicago

QB Mitch Trubisky

16·14

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Sam Bradford

State Farm Stadium · closed · grass

Closing spread

CHI -6

Total

39

Model margin

+0.8est.

ARI perspective

Push chance

2.9%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bears

Cardinals

Win probability

  • Cardinals
  • Bears

How each play moved the game.

Cardinals winsBears wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bearsedge mapCardinals
  • +0.039EPA / play-0.240
  • 46.3%Success rate35.6%
  • +0.147EPA / dropback-0.267
  • -0.119EPA / rush-0.193
  • 8.0%Explosive rate6.0%
  • +2.41CPOE-7.13
  • 41.4%Third-down rate29.0%
  • 67.8%Red-zone TD rate63.9%
  • 1.96Points / drive0.92
  • 2.3%Turnover rate3.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CHI lead 6–4 since 1999

Meetings average 45.1 points. ARI are 6-3-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W9CHI @ ARI9–29ARI
2023 · W16ARI @ CHI16–27CHI
2021 · W13ARI @ CHI33–22ARI
2015 · W2ARI @ CHI48–23ARI
2012 · W16CHI @ ARI28–13CHI
2009 · W9ARI @ CHI41–21ARI
2006 · W6CHI @ ARI24–23CHI
2003 · W13ARI @ CHI3–28CHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCHI–ARI
ARIQ1 15:00575Touchdown0–7
CHIQ1 12:121147Missed field goal0–7
ARIQ1 4:5535Punt0–7
CHIQ1 3:12411Turnover0–13
ARIQ1 1:46121Touchdown0–14
CHIQ1 1:40941Punt0–14
ARIQ2 12:12618Punt0–14
CHIQ2 7:211368Field goal3–14
ARIQ2 1:543-13Punt3–14
CHIQ2 1:2527Turnover3–14
ARIQ2 1:003-5Punt3–14
CHIQ2 0:3114End of half3–14
CHIQ3 15:003-1Punt3–14
ARIQ3 12:56413Turnover3–14
CHIQ3 10:46967Touchdown10–14
ARIQ3 6:16514Turnover10–14
CHIQ3 3:38721Field goal13–14
ARIQ3 0:44754Turnover13–14
CHIQ4 11:231244Field goal16–14
ARIQ4 4:31925Turnover16–14
CHIQ4 1:1037Punt16–14
ARIQ4 0:43414End of half16–14

Box score

Individual performances

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mitchell Trubisky24/3522001

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jordan Howard24612.51
Tarik Cohen55310.60
Mitchell Trubisky284.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Trey Burton45550
Allen Robinson37500
Anthony Miller45350
Taylor Gabriel610340
Jordan Howard22200
Tarik Cohen33150
Benny Cunningham1290
Josh Bellamy1120

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Sam Bradford13/1915722
Josh Rosen4/73601

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
David Johnson12312.60
Josh Rosen11212.00
Chase Edmonds5102.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Christian Kirk78900
Ricky Seals-Jones13351
David Johnson44301
Larry Fitzgerald2290
Jermaine Gresham1290
Chad Williams1480
J.J. Nelson0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -64.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%

Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Bears.

Half-point at risk

2.85%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.2%

Expected total

41.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-5.73
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment+4.70
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+0.79