Closing spread
CHI -6
Total
39
Model margin
+0.8est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
2.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.039EPA / play-0.240
- 46.3%Success rate35.6%
- +0.147EPA / dropback-0.267
- -0.119EPA / rush-0.193
- 8.0%Explosive rate6.0%
- +2.41CPOE-7.13
- 41.4%Third-down rate29.0%
- 67.8%Red-zone TD rate63.9%
- 1.96Points / drive0.92
- 2.3%Turnover rate3.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CHI lead 6–4 since 1999
Meetings average 45.1 points. ARI are 6-3-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitchell Trubisky | 24/35 | 220 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Howard | 24 | 61 | 2.5 | 1 |
| Tarik Cohen | 5 | 53 | 10.6 | 0 |
| Mitchell Trubisky | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trey Burton | 4 | 5 | 55 | 0 |
| Allen Robinson | 3 | 7 | 50 | 0 |
| Anthony Miller | 4 | 5 | 35 | 0 |
| Taylor Gabriel | 6 | 10 | 34 | 0 |
| Jordan Howard | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Tarik Cohen | 3 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Benny Cunningham | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Josh Bellamy | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Bradford | 13/19 | 157 | 2 | 2 |
| Josh Rosen | 4/7 | 36 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Johnson | 12 | 31 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Josh Rosen | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Chase Edmonds | 5 | 10 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Kirk | 7 | 8 | 90 | 0 |
| Ricky Seals-Jones | 1 | 3 | 35 | 1 |
| David Johnson | 4 | 4 | 30 | 1 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Jermaine Gresham | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Chad Williams | 1 | 4 | 8 | 0 |
| J.J. Nelson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
2.85%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.2%
Expected total
41.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-5.73
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment+4.70
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+0.79