Closing spread
CHI -4.5
Total
42
Model margin
+3.4est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bears
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.055EPA / play-0.052
- 41.0%Success rate41.6%
- -0.082EPA / dropback-0.057
- -0.014EPA / rush-0.045
- 9.3%Explosive rate9.6%
- -2.77CPOE+0.01
- 39.6%Third-down rate41.7%
- 62.4%Red-zone TD rate62.5%
- 1.88Points / drive1.72
- 1.5%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CHI lead 6–4 since 1999
Meetings average 45.1 points. CHI are 3-6-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyler Murray | 24/38 | 230 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Conner | 12 | 45 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Kyler Murray | 5 | 32 | 6.4 | 0 |
| Emari Demercado | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Rondale Moore | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Conner | 5 | 5 | 67 | 1 |
| Greg Dortch | 2 | 5 | 45 | 1 |
| Emari Demercado | 7 | 8 | 40 | 0 |
| Trey McBride | 6 | 8 | 31 | 0 |
| Rondale Moore | 2 | 3 | 30 | 0 |
| Elijah Higgins | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Michael Carter | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Michael Wilson | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Fields | 15/27 | 170 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khalil Herbert | 20 | 112 | 5.6 | 1 |
| Justin Fields | 9 | 97 | 10.8 | 1 |
| Roschon Johnson | 9 | 37 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Velus Jones Jr. | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cole Kmet | 4 | 5 | 107 | 0 |
| DJ Moore | 3 | 6 | 18 | 0 |
| Roschon Johnson | 3 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Robert Tonyan | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Khalil Herbert | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Darnell Mooney | 2 | 4 | 5 | 0 |
| Marcedes Lewis | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Velus Jones Jr. | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
1.96%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.2%
Expected total
45.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.71
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.42