2023 · Week 16

Final

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Kyler Murray

16·27

Bears

Chicago

QB Justin Fields

Soldier Field · outdoors · grass · 52°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

CHI -4.5

Total

42

Model margin

+3.4est.

CHI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cardinals

Bears

Win probability

  • Bears
  • Cardinals

How each play moved the game.

Bears winsCardinals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cardinalsedge mapBears
  • -0.055EPA / play-0.052
  • 41.0%Success rate41.6%
  • -0.082EPA / dropback-0.057
  • -0.014EPA / rush-0.045
  • 9.3%Explosive rate9.6%
  • -2.77CPOE+0.01
  • 39.6%Third-down rate41.7%
  • 62.4%Red-zone TD rate62.5%
  • 1.88Points / drive1.72
  • 1.5%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CHI lead 6–4 since 1999

Meetings average 45.1 points. CHI are 3-6-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W9CHI @ ARI9–29ARI
2021 · W13ARI @ CHI33–22ARI
2018 · W3CHI @ ARI16–14CHI
2015 · W2ARI @ CHI48–23ARI
2012 · W16CHI @ ARI28–13CHI
2009 · W9ARI @ CHI41–21ARI
2006 · W6CHI @ ARI24–23CHI
2003 · W13ARI @ CHI3–28CHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultARI–CHI
CHIQ1 15:00421Punt0–0
ARIQ1 13:14613Punt0–0
CHIQ1 9:12771Touchdown0–7
ARIQ1 6:16625Punt0–7
CHIQ1 3:511190Touchdown0–14
ARIQ2 12:543-2Punt0–14
CHIQ2 11:53854Touchdown0–21
ARIQ2 7:12975Touchdown7–21
CHIQ2 2:2736Punt7–21
ARIQ2 1:3837Punt7–21
CHIQ2 0:59410Punt7–21
ARIQ2 0:17329End of half7–21
ARIQ3 15:00420Field goal10–21
CHIQ3 12:12723Punt10–21
ARIQ3 8:4830Punt10–21
CHIQ3 6:39949Field goal10–24
ARIQ3 1:0431Punt10–24
CHIQ4 14:53871Turnover10–24
ARIQ4 10:22975Touchdown16–24
CHIQ4 6:3739Punt16–24
ARIQ4 4:21718Turnover on downs16–24
CHIQ4 2:57616Field goal16–27
ARIQ4 1:02445End of half16–27

Box score

Individual performances

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kyler Murray24/3823020

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Conner12453.80
Kyler Murray5326.40
Emari Demercado2105.00
Rondale Moore166.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
James Conner55671
Greg Dortch25451
Emari Demercado78400
Trey McBride68310
Rondale Moore23300
Elijah Higgins23170
Michael Carter0100
Michael Wilson0400

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Justin Fields15/2717011

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Khalil Herbert201125.61
Justin Fields99710.81
Roschon Johnson9374.10
Velus Jones Jr.144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Cole Kmet451070
DJ Moore36180
Roschon Johnson33160
Robert Tonyan11140
Khalil Herbert1290
Darnell Mooney2450
Marcedes Lewis1111
Velus Jones Jr.0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +4.53.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Cardinals.

Half-point at risk

1.96%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.2%

Expected total

45.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.71
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.42