2021 · Week 13

Final

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Taysom Kyler Murray

33·22

Bears

Chicago

QB Andy Dalton

Soldier Field · outdoors · grass · 34°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

ARI -7.5

Total

43.5

Model margin

+1.8est.

CHI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cardinals

Bears

Win probability

  • Bears
  • Cardinals

How each play moved the game.

Bears winsCardinals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cardinalsedge mapBears
  • +0.079EPA / play-0.087
  • 46.8%Success rate41.4%
  • +0.154EPA / dropback-0.077
  • -0.037EPA / rush-0.105
  • 9.4%Explosive rate7.4%
  • +4.19CPOE-2.87
  • 45.2%Third-down rate34.7%
  • 62.3%Red-zone TD rate52.0%
  • 2.37Points / drive1.62
  • 1.2%Turnover rate2.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CHI lead 6–4 since 1999

Meetings average 45.1 points. CHI are 3-6-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W9CHI @ ARI9–29ARI
2023 · W16ARI @ CHI16–27CHI
2018 · W3CHI @ ARI16–14CHI
2015 · W2ARI @ CHI48–23ARI
2012 · W16CHI @ ARI28–13CHI
2009 · W9ARI @ CHI41–21ARI
2006 · W6CHI @ ARI24–23CHI
2003 · W13ARI @ CHI3–28CHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultARI–CHI
CHIQ1 15:0034Turnover0–0
ARIQ1 13:35528Touchdown7–0
CHIQ1 10:551140Turnover7–0
ARIQ1 3:51522Touchdown14–0
CHIQ1 1:391377Touchdown14–7
ARIQ2 8:50774Touchdown21–7
CHIQ2 5:4043Punt21–7
ARIQ2 3:25310Punt21–7
CHIQ2 1:5138Punt21–7
ARIQ2 1:10518End of half21–7
ARIQ3 15:00851Field goal24–7
CHIQ3 9:521675Touchdown24–14
ARIQ3 2:49611Punt24–14
CHIQ4 14:44713Turnover24–14
ARIQ4 11:36521Field goal27–14
CHIQ4 8:31523Turnover27–14
ARIQ4 7:08212Touchdown33–14
CHIQ4 6:231275Touchdown33–22
ARIQ4 2:45710Turnover on downs33–22
CHIQ4 0:19111End of half33–22

Box score

Individual performances

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kyler Murray11/1512320

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Conner20753.80
Kyler Murray10595.92
Rondale Moore320.70
Eno Benjamin210.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
James Conner22361
DeAndre Hopkins22321
A.J. Green11140
Eno Benjamin11120
Zach Ertz12100
Rondale Moore1280
Demetrius Harris2270
Christian Kirk1340

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andy Dalton26/4122924

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
David Montgomery21904.31
Khalil Herbert4164.00
Andy Dalton263.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jakeem Grant57621
David Montgomery89510
Cole Kmet37410
Damiere Byrd37360
Darnell Mooney57270
Khalil Herbert11110
Jimmy Graham1111
Rodney Adams0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -7.54.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%

Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Cardinals.

Half-point at risk

4.11%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.9%

Expected total

44.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.36
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+1.78
  • Rest differential-0.32
  • Expected margin+1.81