Closing spread
ARI -7.5
Total
43.5
Model margin
+1.8est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bears
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.079EPA / play-0.087
- 46.8%Success rate41.4%
- +0.154EPA / dropback-0.077
- -0.037EPA / rush-0.105
- 9.4%Explosive rate7.4%
- +4.19CPOE-2.87
- 45.2%Third-down rate34.7%
- 62.3%Red-zone TD rate52.0%
- 2.37Points / drive1.62
- 1.2%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CHI lead 6–4 since 1999
Meetings average 45.1 points. CHI are 3-6-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyler Murray | 11/15 | 123 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Conner | 20 | 75 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Kyler Murray | 10 | 59 | 5.9 | 2 |
| Rondale Moore | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0 |
| Eno Benjamin | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Conner | 2 | 2 | 36 | 1 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 2 | 2 | 32 | 1 |
| A.J. Green | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Eno Benjamin | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Zach Ertz | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Rondale Moore | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Demetrius Harris | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Christian Kirk | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 26/41 | 229 | 2 | 4 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Montgomery | 21 | 90 | 4.3 | 1 |
| Khalil Herbert | 4 | 16 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Andy Dalton | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jakeem Grant | 5 | 7 | 62 | 1 |
| David Montgomery | 8 | 9 | 51 | 0 |
| Cole Kmet | 3 | 7 | 41 | 0 |
| Damiere Byrd | 3 | 7 | 36 | 0 |
| Darnell Mooney | 5 | 7 | 27 | 0 |
| Khalil Herbert | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Jimmy Graham | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Rodney Adams | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
4.11%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.9%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.36
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+1.78
- Rest differential-0.32
- Expected margin+1.81