Closing spread
CHI -11.5
Total
40
Model margin
+2.4est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.046EPA / play-0.045
- 40.3%Success rate42.0%
- -0.039EPA / dropback+0.036
- -0.054EPA / rush-0.164
- 9.4%Explosive rate7.2%
- -3.50CPOE-3.07
- 37.7%Third-down rate39.4%
- 50.6%Red-zone TD rate53.4%
- 1.80Points / drive1.52
- 3.0%Turnover rate2.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CHI lead 6–4 since 1999
Meetings average 45.1 points. ARI are 6-3-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rex Grossman | 14/37 | 148 | 0 | 4 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Jones | 11 | 39 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Cedric Benson | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Jason McKie | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
| Rex Grossman | 3 | -7 | -2.3 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Leinart | 24/42 | 232 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edgerrin James | 36 | 55 | 1.5 | 0 |
| J.J. Arrington | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
1.09%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.5%
Expected total
42.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.17
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.39