2006 · Week 6

Final

Bears

Chicago

QB Rex Grossman

24·23

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Matt Leinart

University of Phoenix Stadium · open · grass

Closing spread

CHI -11.5

Total

40

Model margin

+2.4est.

ARI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Cardinals
  • Bears

How each play moved the game.

Cardinals winsBears wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bearsedge mapCardinals
  • -0.046EPA / play-0.045
  • 40.3%Success rate42.0%
  • -0.039EPA / dropback+0.036
  • -0.054EPA / rush-0.164
  • 9.4%Explosive rate7.2%
  • -3.50CPOE-3.07
  • 37.7%Third-down rate39.4%
  • 50.6%Red-zone TD rate53.4%
  • 1.80Points / drive1.52
  • 3.0%Turnover rate2.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CHI lead 6–4 since 1999

Meetings average 45.1 points. ARI are 6-3-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W9CHI @ ARI9–29ARI
2023 · W16ARI @ CHI16–27CHI
2021 · W13ARI @ CHI33–22ARI
2018 · W3CHI @ ARI16–14CHI
2015 · W2ARI @ CHI48–23ARI
2012 · W16CHI @ ARI28–13CHI
2009 · W9ARI @ CHI41–21ARI
2003 · W13ARI @ CHI3–28CHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCHI–ARI
CHIQ1 15:0031Punt0–0
ARIQ1 13:581277Touchdown0–7
CHIQ1 7:0638Punt0–7
ARIQ1 5:3237Punt0–7
CHIQ1 3:59427Turnover0–7
ARIQ1 2:26325Touchdown0–14
CHIQ1 0:5437Punt0–14
ARIQ2 14:413-2Punt0–14
CHIQ2 13:1410Turnover0–14
ARIQ2 13:0035Missed field goal0–14
CHIQ2 11:1739Punt0–14
ARIQ2 9:2739Punt0–14
CHIQ2 8:131-7Turnover0–14
ARIQ2 8:05720Field goal0–17
CHIQ2 4:15520Turnover0–17
ARIQ2 2:10422Field goal0–20
ARIQ3 15:0036Punt0–20
CHIQ3 13:111264Field goal3–20
ARIQ3 7:221344Field goal3–23
CHIQ3 1:4738Punt3–23
ARIQ3 0:502-12Opp touchdown10–23
ARIQ3 0:02628Punt10–23
CHIQ4 11:4734Punt10–23
ARIQ4 10:533-1Punt10–23
CHIQ4 10:01611Turnover10–23
ARIQ4 9:1736Punt10–23
CHIQ4 7:20523Turnover10–23
ARIQ4 5:532-1Opp touchdown17–23
ARIQ4 5:00514Opp touchdown24–23
ARIQ4 2:58839Missed field goal24–23
CHIQ4 0:4700End of half24–23

Box score

Individual performances

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Rex Grossman14/3714804

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Thomas Jones11393.50
Cedric Benson144.00
Jason McKie1-2-2.00
Rex Grossman3-7-2.30

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Leinart24/4223220

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Edgerrin James36551.50
J.J. Arrington2115.50

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -11.54.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%

Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Bears.

Half-point at risk

1.09%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.5%

Expected total

42.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.17
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.39