Closing spread
CHI -1
Total
44.5
Model margin
+1.0est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Bears
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.026EPA / play-0.089
- 45.3%Success rate39.6%
- +0.037EPA / dropback-0.064
- -0.143EPA / rush-0.135
- 9.9%Explosive rate8.4%
- +3.71CPOE+0.30
- 36.7%Third-down rate37.3%
- 73.5%Red-zone TD rate52.0%
- 1.75Points / drive1.57
- 3.4%Turnover rate3.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CHI lead 6–4 since 1999
Meetings average 45.1 points. CHI are 3-6-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kurt Warner | 22/32 | 261 | 5 | 0 |
| Matt Leinart | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Hightower | 15 | 77 | 5.1 | 0 |
| Chris Wells | 13 | 72 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Steve Breaston | 1 | 25 | 25.0 | 0 |
| LaRod Stephens-Howling | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Kurt Warner | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Larry Fitzgerald | 9 | 14 | 123 | 2 |
| Steve Breaston | 5 | 6 | 66 | 1 |
| Early Doucet | 4 | 4 | 31 | 0 |
| Anthony Becht | 1 | 2 | 15 | 1 |
| Ben Patrick | 2 | 2 | 15 | 1 |
| Tim Hightower | 1 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Jerheme Urban | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Cutler | 29/47 | 369 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Forte | 5 | 33 | 6.6 | 0 |
| Adrian Peterson | 2 | 23 | 11.5 | 0 |
| Jay Cutler | 3 | 17 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Devin Hester | 2 | -3 | -1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin Hester | 6 | 12 | 94 | 0 |
| Earl Bennett | 7 | 11 | 93 | 0 |
| Matt Forte | 6 | 8 | 74 | 0 |
| Greg Olsen | 5 | 7 | 71 | 3 |
| Johnny Knox | 4 | 6 | 30 | 0 |
| Desmond Clark | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.7%
Expected total
43.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.51
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.97