2015 · Week 2

Final

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Carson Palmer

48·23

Bears

Chicago

QB Jay Cutler

Soldier Field · outdoors · grass · 70°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

ARI -2

Total

45.5

Model margin

-0.6est.

CHI perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cardinals

Bears

Win probability

  • Bears
  • Cardinals

How each play moved the game.

Bears winsCardinals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cardinalsedge mapBears
  • +0.133EPA / play-0.020
  • 47.7%Success rate42.8%
  • +0.260EPA / dropback+0.051
  • -0.059EPA / rush-0.113
  • 10.8%Explosive rate8.8%
  • +4.51CPOE+1.51
  • 47.4%Third-down rate42.3%
  • 61.1%Red-zone TD rate59.4%
  • 2.34Points / drive1.74
  • 2.1%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CHI lead 6–4 since 1999

Meetings average 45.1 points. CHI are 3-6-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W9CHI @ ARI9–29ARI
2023 · W16ARI @ CHI16–27CHI
2021 · W13ARI @ CHI33–22ARI
2018 · W3CHI @ ARI16–14CHI
2012 · W16CHI @ ARI28–13CHI
2009 · W9ARI @ CHI41–21ARI
2006 · W6CHI @ ARI24–23CHI
2003 · W13ARI @ CHI3–28CHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultARI–CHI
ARIQ1 15:0000Touchdown7–0
CHIQ1 14:47815Punt7–0
ARIQ1 10:18633Punt7–0
CHIQ1 6:22689Touchdown7–7
ARIQ1 3:20723Touchdown14–7
CHIQ1 1:131175Touchdown14–14
ARIQ2 10:021152Touchdown21–14
CHIQ2 3:5121Opp touchdown28–14
CHIQ2 2:59624Punt28–14
CHIQ2 1:1530Field goal28–17
ARIQ2 0:5910Turnover28–17
CHIQ2 0:5436Field goal28–20
CHIQ3 15:003-5Turnover28–20
ARIQ3 13:33232Touchdown35–20
CHIQ3 12:41311Punt35–20
ARIQ3 10:29870Touchdown42–20
CHIQ3 6:06657Field goal42–23
ARIQ3 2:2637Punt42–23
CHIQ3 0:394-4Punt42–23
ARIQ4 14:18839Punt42–23
CHIQ4 10:0335Punt42–23
ARIQ4 7:46946Touchdown48–23
CHIQ4 2:42761Turnover on downs48–23
ARIQ4 1:1100End of half48–23

Box score

Individual performances

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Carson Palmer17/2418541

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Johnson20723.60
David Johnson5428.41
Kerwynn Williams133.00
Carson Palmer2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Larry Fitzgerald891123
John Brown55450
Jaron Brown23201
Jermaine Gresham1150
David Johnson1230
Chris Johnson0100
Michael Floyd0100
J.J. Nelson0100

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jimmy Clausen14/2312101
Jay Cutler8/912011

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Matt Forte15614.10
Jay Cutler3248.00
Jeremy Langford6213.51
Jacquizz Rodgers284.00
Jimmy Clausen2-5-2.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Martellus Bennett46480
Josh Bellamy12481
Matt Forte45440
Eddie Royal78410
Cameron Meredith34360
Zach Miller22140
Marquess Wilson15100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -22.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.3%2.6%

Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Cardinals.

Half-point at risk

2.13%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

47.4%

Expected total

44.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.10
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.61