Closing spread
ARI -2
Total
45.5
Model margin
-0.6est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Bears
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.133EPA / play-0.020
- 47.7%Success rate42.8%
- +0.260EPA / dropback+0.051
- -0.059EPA / rush-0.113
- 10.8%Explosive rate8.8%
- +4.51CPOE+1.51
- 47.4%Third-down rate42.3%
- 61.1%Red-zone TD rate59.4%
- 2.34Points / drive1.74
- 2.1%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CHI lead 6–4 since 1999
Meetings average 45.1 points. CHI are 3-6-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Palmer | 17/24 | 185 | 4 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Johnson | 20 | 72 | 3.6 | 0 |
| David Johnson | 5 | 42 | 8.4 | 1 |
| Kerwynn Williams | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Carson Palmer | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Larry Fitzgerald | 8 | 9 | 112 | 3 |
| John Brown | 5 | 5 | 45 | 0 |
| Jaron Brown | 2 | 3 | 20 | 1 |
| Jermaine Gresham | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| David Johnson | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Chris Johnson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Michael Floyd | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| J.J. Nelson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Clausen | 14/23 | 121 | 0 | 1 |
| Jay Cutler | 8/9 | 120 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Forte | 15 | 61 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Jay Cutler | 3 | 24 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Jeremy Langford | 6 | 21 | 3.5 | 1 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Jimmy Clausen | 2 | -5 | -2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martellus Bennett | 4 | 6 | 48 | 0 |
| Josh Bellamy | 1 | 2 | 48 | 1 |
| Matt Forte | 4 | 5 | 44 | 0 |
| Eddie Royal | 7 | 8 | 41 | 0 |
| Cameron Meredith | 3 | 4 | 36 | 0 |
| Zach Miller | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Marquess Wilson | 1 | 5 | 10 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
2.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.4%
Expected total
44.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.10
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.61