2024 · Week 9

Final

Bears

Chicago

QB Caleb Williams

9·29

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Kyler Murray

State Farm Stadium · closed · grass

Closing spread

ARI -1.5

Total

44.5

Model margin

+4.5est.

ARI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bears

Cardinals

Win probability

  • Cardinals
  • Bears

How each play moved the game.

Cardinals winsBears wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bearsedge mapCardinals
  • -0.072EPA / play+0.067
  • 40.1%Success rate47.3%
  • -0.036EPA / dropback+0.126
  • -0.142EPA / rush-0.023
  • 5.9%Explosive rate10.0%
  • -0.22CPOE+2.11
  • 33.1%Third-down rate43.0%
  • 61.1%Red-zone TD rate60.3%
  • 1.65Points / drive2.31
  • 1.3%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CHI lead 6–4 since 1999

Meetings average 45.1 points. ARI are 6-3-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W16ARI @ CHI16–27CHI
2021 · W13ARI @ CHI33–22ARI
2018 · W3CHI @ ARI16–14CHI
2015 · W2ARI @ CHI48–23ARI
2012 · W16CHI @ ARI28–13CHI
2009 · W9ARI @ CHI41–21ARI
2006 · W6CHI @ ARI24–23CHI
2003 · W13ARI @ CHI3–28CHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCHI–ARI
ARIQ1 15:0034Punt0–0
CHIQ1 13:301245Punt0–0
ARIQ1 7:09419Punt0–0
CHIQ1 4:2432Punt0–0
ARIQ1 3:23541Touchdown0–7
CHIQ1 0:461169Field goal3–7
ARIQ2 11:51223Turnover3–7
CHIQ2 11:02511Field goal6–7
ARIQ2 9:101263Touchdown6–14
CHIQ2 3:14940Field goal9–14
ARIQ2 0:26470Touchdown9–21
CHIQ2 0:0400End of half9–21
CHIQ3 15:0035Punt9–21
ARIQ3 12:471269Field goal9–24
CHIQ3 4:531010Turnover on downs9–24
ARIQ4 14:5533Field goal9–27
CHIQ4 14:023-3Punt9–27
ARIQ4 11:51644Punt9–27
CHIQ4 8:2120Safety9–29
ARIQ4 7:5449Turnover9–29
CHIQ4 7:31934Turnover on downs9–29
ARIQ4 4:3535Punt9–29
CHIQ4 2:15629End of half9–29

Box score

Individual performances

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Caleb Williams22/4121700

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
D'Andre Swift16513.20
Roschon Johnson3134.30
Caleb Williams451.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Rome Odunze571040
Keenan Allen410360
DJ Moore49330
D'Andre Swift66310
Roschon Johnson2380
Gerald Everett1150

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kyler Murray13/2015400

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Conner181075.90
Emari Demercado45914.81
Trey Benson8374.61
Kyler Murray263.00
DeeJay Dallas122.00
Trey McBride122.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Trey McBride34350
Elijah Higgins22340
Marvin Harrison Jr.25340
Emari Demercado22210
Trey Benson11180
James Conner33120
Greg Dortch0100
Michael Wilson0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +1.53.6%6.5%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Bears.

Half-point at risk

2.10%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

61.2%

Expected total

44.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.85
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.55