Closing spread
ARI -1.5
Total
44.5
Model margin
+4.5est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.072EPA / play+0.067
- 40.1%Success rate47.3%
- -0.036EPA / dropback+0.126
- -0.142EPA / rush-0.023
- 5.9%Explosive rate10.0%
- -0.22CPOE+2.11
- 33.1%Third-down rate43.0%
- 61.1%Red-zone TD rate60.3%
- 1.65Points / drive2.31
- 1.3%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CHI lead 6–4 since 1999
Meetings average 45.1 points. ARI are 6-3-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Williams | 22/41 | 217 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D'Andre Swift | 16 | 51 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Roschon Johnson | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Caleb Williams | 4 | 5 | 1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rome Odunze | 5 | 7 | 104 | 0 |
| Keenan Allen | 4 | 10 | 36 | 0 |
| DJ Moore | 4 | 9 | 33 | 0 |
| D'Andre Swift | 6 | 6 | 31 | 0 |
| Roschon Johnson | 2 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Gerald Everett | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyler Murray | 13/20 | 154 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Conner | 18 | 107 | 5.9 | 0 |
| Emari Demercado | 4 | 59 | 14.8 | 1 |
| Trey Benson | 8 | 37 | 4.6 | 1 |
| Kyler Murray | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| DeeJay Dallas | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Trey McBride | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trey McBride | 3 | 4 | 35 | 0 |
| Elijah Higgins | 2 | 2 | 34 | 0 |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | 2 | 5 | 34 | 0 |
| Emari Demercado | 2 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Trey Benson | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 |
| James Conner | 3 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Greg Dortch | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Michael Wilson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
2.10%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.2%
Expected total
44.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.85
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.55