2014 · Week 3

Final

Bears

Chicago

QB Jay Cutler

27·19

Jets

New York

QB Geno Smith

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 60°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

NYJ -1.5

Total

44.5

Model margin

+4.0est.

NYJ perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bears

Jets

Win probability

  • Jets
  • Bears

How each play moved the game.

Jets winsBears wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bearsedge mapJets
  • -0.055EPA / play-0.074
  • 44.2%Success rate40.5%
  • -0.032EPA / dropback-0.051
  • -0.104EPA / rush-0.104
  • 7.1%Explosive rate8.4%
  • -0.14CPOE-3.58
  • 38.4%Third-down rate39.3%
  • 67.3%Red-zone TD rate47.3%
  • 1.62Points / drive1.41
  • 2.8%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CHI lead 6–2 since 1999

Meetings average 37.3 points. NYJ are 1-6-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W4NYJ @ CHI12–23CHI
2022 · W12CHI @ NYJ10–31NYJ
2018 · W8NYJ @ CHI10–24CHI
2010 · W16NYJ @ CHI34–38CHI
2006 · W11CHI @ NYJ10–0CHI
2002 · W15NYJ @ CHI13–20CHI
2000 · W13CHI @ NYJ10–17NYJ

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCHI–NYJ
NYJQ1 15:00211Opp touchdown7–0
NYJQ1 14:28528Punt7–0
CHIQ1 11:553-1Punt7–0
CHIQ1 10:1547Touchdown14–0
NYJQ1 9:541055Field goal14–3
CHIQ1 3:421574Field goal17–3
NYJQ2 13:54766Field goal17–6
CHIQ2 9:57518Punt17–6
NYJQ2 7:21962Touchdown17–13
CHIQ2 3:45826Turnover17–13
NYJQ2 1:303-1Punt17–13
CHIQ2 0:4013End of half17–13
CHIQ3 15:00790Touchdown24–13
NYJQ3 11:2838Punt24–13
CHIQ3 10:123-2Punt24–13
NYJQ3 8:04744Turnover24–13
CHIQ3 4:573-6Punt24–13
NYJQ3 3:54524Field goal24–16
CHIQ3 0:2735Punt24–16
NYJQ4 14:021046Field goal24–19
CHIQ4 9:521146Field goal27–19
NYJQ4 3:101371Turnover on downs27–19
CHIQ4 0:5800End of half27–19

Box score

Individual performances

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jay Cutler23/3822520

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Matt Forte13332.50
Jay Cutler5142.80
Alshon Jeffery2136.50
Ka'Deem Carey100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Alshon Jeffery8131050
Martellus Bennett58542
Matt Forte67430
Santonio Holmes2390
Dante Rosario1180
Brandon Marshall1660

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Geno Smith26/4331612

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Ivory10444.40
Chris Johnson10343.40
Geno Smith3206.70
Bilal Powell2136.50
Mike Vick133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jeremy Kerley711811
Greg Salas23560
Jace Amaro34540
Chris Ivory44520
Eric Decker11190
Jeff Cumberland36180
David Nelson37150
Zach Sudfeld11150
Bilal Powell2360
Chris Johnson0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +1.53.7%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Bears.

Half-point at risk

2.12%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.9%

Expected total

45.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.56
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.05