Closing spread
NYJ -1.5
Total
44.5
Model margin
+4.0est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jets
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.055EPA / play-0.074
- 44.2%Success rate40.5%
- -0.032EPA / dropback-0.051
- -0.104EPA / rush-0.104
- 7.1%Explosive rate8.4%
- -0.14CPOE-3.58
- 38.4%Third-down rate39.3%
- 67.3%Red-zone TD rate47.3%
- 1.62Points / drive1.41
- 2.8%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CHI lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 37.6 points. NYJ are 1-5-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Cutler | 23/38 | 225 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Forte | 13 | 33 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Jay Cutler | 5 | 14 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Alshon Jeffery | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Ka'Deem Carey | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alshon Jeffery | 8 | 13 | 105 | 0 |
| Martellus Bennett | 5 | 8 | 54 | 2 |
| Matt Forte | 6 | 7 | 43 | 0 |
| Santonio Holmes | 2 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Dante Rosario | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Brandon Marshall | 1 | 6 | 6 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geno Smith | 26/43 | 316 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Ivory | 10 | 44 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Chris Johnson | 10 | 34 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Geno Smith | 3 | 20 | 6.7 | 0 |
| Bilal Powell | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Mike Vick | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Kerley | 7 | 11 | 81 | 1 |
| Greg Salas | 2 | 3 | 56 | 0 |
| Jace Amaro | 3 | 4 | 54 | 0 |
| Chris Ivory | 4 | 4 | 52 | 0 |
| Eric Decker | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 |
| Jeff Cumberland | 3 | 6 | 18 | 0 |
| David Nelson | 3 | 7 | 15 | 0 |
| Zach Sudfeld | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Bilal Powell | 2 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Chris Johnson | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
2.12%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.9%
Expected total
45.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.56
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.05