2026 · Week 4

Final

Jets

New York

QB Geno Smith

12·23

Bears

Chicago

QB Case Keenum

Soldier Field · outdoors · grass · 72°F · wind 3mph

Closing spread

CHI -3.5

Total

43.5

Model margin

+0.5est.

CHI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jets

Bears

Win probability

  • Bears
  • Jets

How each play moved the game.

Bears winsJets wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jetsedge mapBears
  • +0.011EPA / play+0.052
  • 44.6%Success rate47.0%
  • +0.118EPA / dropback+0.154
  • -0.148EPA / rush-0.082
  • 9.3%Explosive rate9.6%
  • +5.33CPOE+5.30
  • 37.1%Third-down rate44.6%
  • 57.8%Red-zone TD rate51.9%
  • 1.91Points / drive2.27
  • 1.2%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CHI lead 6–2 since 1999

Meetings average 37.3 points. CHI are 6-1-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2022 · W12CHI @ NYJ10–31NYJ
2018 · W8NYJ @ CHI10–24CHI
2014 · W3CHI @ NYJ27–19CHI
2010 · W16NYJ @ CHI34–38CHI
2006 · W11CHI @ NYJ10–0CHI
2002 · W15NYJ @ CHI13–20CHI
2000 · W13CHI @ NYJ10–17NYJ

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYJ–CHI
CHIQ1 15:001478Turnover on downs0–0
NYJQ1 9:1239Punt0–0
CHIQ1 7:241367Touchdown0–7
NYJQ1 0:2353Punt0–7
CHIQ2 13:17312Turnover0–7
NYJQ2 11:42516Field goal3–7
CHIQ2 8:151054Field goal3–10
NYJQ2 2:2936Punt3–10
CHIQ2 1:441163Field goal3–13
NYJQ3 15:00724Punt3–13
CHIQ3 9:51324Turnover3–13
NYJQ3 8:46421Field goal6–13
CHIQ3 7:00957Touchdown6–20
NYJQ3 2:2636Punt6–20
CHIQ3 0:571077Field goal6–23
NYJQ4 10:01272Touchdown12–23
CHIQ4 9:161763End of half12–23

Box score

Individual performances

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Geno Smith8/1511910

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Braelon Allen14594.20

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Isaiah Williams23731
Garrett Wilson34270
Jelani Woods11110
Braelon Allen2280
Sterling Shepard0100
Kenyon Sadiq0400

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tyson Bagent25/3426801

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kyle Monangai301464.92
D'Andre Swift15583.90
Roschon Johnson4164.00
Luther Burden III11111.00
Tyson Bagent410.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Rome Odunze67940
Luther Burden III46630
Colston Loveland69570
D'Andre Swift22160
Cole Kmet22130
Sam Roush1180
Roschon Johnson1170
Kalif Raymond2260
Kyle Monangai1140

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.52.6%4.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Jets.

Half-point at risk

2.47%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.3%

Expected total

44.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.65
  • Home-field advantage+2.22
  • Quarterback adjustment-3.32
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+0.46