2018 · Week 8

Final

Jets

New York

QB Sam Darnold

10·24

Bears

Chicago

QB Mitch Trubisky

Soldier Field · outdoors · grass · 48°F · wind 18mph

Closing spread

CHI -8.5

Total

42.5

Model margin

+7.2est.

CHI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jets

Bears

Win probability

  • Bears
  • Jets

How each play moved the game.

Bears winsJets wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jetsedge mapBears
  • -0.130EPA / play+0.039
  • 37.1%Success rate46.3%
  • -0.087EPA / dropback+0.147
  • -0.196EPA / rush-0.119
  • 8.2%Explosive rate8.0%
  • -5.42CPOE+2.41
  • 32.2%Third-down rate41.4%
  • 49.6%Red-zone TD rate67.8%
  • 1.47Points / drive1.96
  • 2.8%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CHI lead 6–2 since 1999

Meetings average 37.3 points. CHI are 6-1-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W4NYJ @ CHI12–23CHI
2022 · W12CHI @ NYJ10–31NYJ
2014 · W3CHI @ NYJ27–19CHI
2010 · W16NYJ @ CHI34–38CHI
2006 · W11CHI @ NYJ10–0CHI
2002 · W15NYJ @ CHI13–20CHI
2000 · W13CHI @ NYJ10–17NYJ

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYJ–CHI
NYJQ1 15:0036Punt0–0
CHIQ1 13:02743Missed field goal0–0
NYJQ1 7:5935Punt0–0
CHIQ1 6:20388Touchdown0–7
NYJQ1 5:241356Field goal3–7
CHIQ2 11:59727Punt3–7
NYJQ2 8:21620Punt3–7
CHIQ2 5:2530Punt3–7
NYJQ2 4:1934Punt3–7
CHIQ2 2:35716Punt3–7
NYJQ2 0:2430Punt3–7
CHIQ3 15:00527Punt3–7
NYJQ3 11:5830Punt3–7
CHIQ3 10:54950Touchdown3–14
NYJQ3 7:1337Punt3–14
CHIQ3 5:28936Field goal3–17
NYJQ4 14:56860Touchdown10–17
CHIQ4 11:10879Touchdown10–24
NYJQ4 7:08412Punt10–24
CHIQ4 5:26829Punt10–24
NYJQ4 1:53537End of half10–24

Box score

Individual performances

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Sam Darnold14/2915310

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Isaiah Crowell13251.90
Sam Darnold5224.40
Trenton Cannon6101.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Deontay Burnett44610
Jermaine Kearse310300
Chris Herndon12161
Charone Peake11140
Isaiah Crowell11130
Trenton Cannon34120
Neal Sterling1170
Andre Roberts0100
Jordan Leggett0100

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mitchell Trubisky16/2922020

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jordan Howard22813.71
Mitchell Trubisky6518.50
Tarik Cohen5408.00
Anthony Miller177.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tarik Cohen13701
Taylor Gabriel46520
Josh Bellamy45370
Anthony Miller37371
Trey Burton34180
Kevin White1360
Jordan Howard0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +8.55.8%7.2%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.3%2.6%

Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Jets.

Half-point at risk

1.33%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

67.8%

Expected total

41.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+5.44
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+7.18