Closing spread
CHI -8.5
Total
42.5
Model margin
+7.2est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bears
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.130EPA / play+0.039
- 37.1%Success rate46.3%
- -0.087EPA / dropback+0.147
- -0.196EPA / rush-0.119
- 8.2%Explosive rate8.0%
- -5.42CPOE+2.41
- 32.2%Third-down rate41.4%
- 49.6%Red-zone TD rate67.8%
- 1.47Points / drive1.96
- 2.8%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CHI lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 37.6 points. CHI are 5-1-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Darnold | 14/29 | 153 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaiah Crowell | 13 | 25 | 1.9 | 0 |
| Sam Darnold | 5 | 22 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Trenton Cannon | 6 | 10 | 1.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deontay Burnett | 4 | 4 | 61 | 0 |
| Jermaine Kearse | 3 | 10 | 30 | 0 |
| Chris Herndon | 1 | 2 | 16 | 1 |
| Charone Peake | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Isaiah Crowell | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Trenton Cannon | 3 | 4 | 12 | 0 |
| Neal Sterling | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Andre Roberts | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Leggett | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitchell Trubisky | 16/29 | 220 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Howard | 22 | 81 | 3.7 | 1 |
| Mitchell Trubisky | 6 | 51 | 8.5 | 0 |
| Tarik Cohen | 5 | 40 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Anthony Miller | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tarik Cohen | 1 | 3 | 70 | 1 |
| Taylor Gabriel | 4 | 6 | 52 | 0 |
| Josh Bellamy | 4 | 5 | 37 | 0 |
| Anthony Miller | 3 | 7 | 37 | 1 |
| Trey Burton | 3 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Kevin White | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Jordan Howard | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
1.33%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
67.8%
Expected total
41.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+5.44
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+7.18