2010 · Week 16

Final

Jets

New York

QB Mark Sanchez

34·38

Bears

Chicago

QB Jay Cutler

Soldier Field · outdoors · grass · 33°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

CHI -1.5

Total

36

Model margin

+1.2est.

CHI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jets

Bears

Win probability

  • Bears
  • Jets

How each play moved the game.

Bears winsJets wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jetsedge mapBears
  • -0.019EPA / play-0.097
  • 41.8%Success rate39.0%
  • +0.015EPA / dropback-0.053
  • -0.056EPA / rush-0.166
  • 8.3%Explosive rate8.3%
  • -4.95CPOE+0.87
  • 40.2%Third-down rate33.1%
  • 43.6%Red-zone TD rate47.3%
  • 1.69Points / drive1.43
  • 1.9%Turnover rate3.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CHI lead 6–2 since 1999

Meetings average 37.3 points. CHI are 6-1-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W4NYJ @ CHI12–23CHI
2022 · W12CHI @ NYJ10–31NYJ
2018 · W8NYJ @ CHI10–24CHI
2014 · W3CHI @ NYJ27–19CHI
2006 · W11CHI @ NYJ10–0CHI
2002 · W15NYJ @ CHI13–20CHI
2000 · W13CHI @ NYJ10–17NYJ

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYJ–CHI
CHIQ1 15:00933Field goal0–3
NYJQ1 9:40524Turnover0–3
CHIQ1 6:47445Touchdown0–10
NYJQ1 4:54885Touchdown7–10
CHIQ2 14:562-5Opp touchdown14–10
CHIQ2 13:5232Punt14–10
NYJQ2 12:38420Punt14–10
CHIQ2 10:173-6Punt14–10
NYJQ2 8:23636Touchdown21–10
CHIQ2 5:44769Touchdown21–17
NYJQ2 2:44859Field goal24–17
CHIQ2 0:1213End of half24–17
NYJQ3 15:0047Turnover on downs24–23
CHIQ3 13:28140Touchdown24–24
NYJQ3 13:2030Punt24–24
CHIQ3 12:06332Touchdown24–31
NYJQ3 10:29466Touchdown31–31
CHIQ3 8:36549Touchdown31–38
NYJQ3 6:061151Field goal34–38
CHIQ4 14:52749Missed field goal34–38
NYJQ4 11:261240Punt34–38
CHIQ4 5:3330Punt34–38
NYJQ4 4:3235Punt34–38
CHIQ4 3:02513Punt34–38
NYJQ4 1:0320Turnover34–38
CHIQ4 0:5100End of half34–38

Box score

Individual performances

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mark Sanchez24/3726911
Brad Smith0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Shonn Greene12705.81
LaDainian Tomlinson13282.21
Brad Smith2189.00
Santonio Holmes133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dustin Keller79790
Braylon Edwards68780
Santonio Holmes48691
LaDainian Tomlinson22140
Shonn Greene23140
Jerricho Cotchery2480
Ben Hartsock0100
Brad Smith0100

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jay Cutler13/2521531

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Matt Forte191135.91
Chester Taylor441.00
Jay Cutler430.81

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Johnny Knox46922
Matt Forte47560
Devin Hester35481
Earl Bennett14140
Greg Olsen1350

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +1.54.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Jets.

Half-point at risk

2.13%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.4%

Expected total

42.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.16
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+1.24