Closing spread
CHI -1.5
Total
36
Model margin
+1.2est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bears
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.019EPA / play-0.097
- 41.8%Success rate39.0%
- +0.015EPA / dropback-0.053
- -0.056EPA / rush-0.166
- 8.3%Explosive rate8.3%
- -4.95CPOE+0.87
- 40.2%Third-down rate33.1%
- 43.6%Red-zone TD rate47.3%
- 1.69Points / drive1.43
- 1.9%Turnover rate3.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CHI lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 37.6 points. CHI are 5-1-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Sanchez | 24/37 | 269 | 1 | 1 |
| Brad Smith | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shonn Greene | 12 | 70 | 5.8 | 1 |
| LaDainian Tomlinson | 13 | 28 | 2.2 | 1 |
| Brad Smith | 2 | 18 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Santonio Holmes | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dustin Keller | 7 | 9 | 79 | 0 |
| Braylon Edwards | 6 | 8 | 78 | 0 |
| Santonio Holmes | 4 | 8 | 69 | 1 |
| LaDainian Tomlinson | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Shonn Greene | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Jerricho Cotchery | 2 | 4 | 8 | 0 |
| Ben Hartsock | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Brad Smith | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Cutler | 13/25 | 215 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Forte | 19 | 113 | 5.9 | 1 |
| Chester Taylor | 4 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Jay Cutler | 4 | 3 | 0.8 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johnny Knox | 4 | 6 | 92 | 2 |
| Matt Forte | 4 | 7 | 56 | 0 |
| Devin Hester | 3 | 5 | 48 | 1 |
| Earl Bennett | 1 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
| Greg Olsen | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
2.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.4%
Expected total
42.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.16
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+1.24