2002 · Week 15

Final

Jets

New York

QB Chad Pennington

13·20

Bears

Chicago

QB Chris Chandler

Memorial Stadium (Champaign) · outdoors · astroplay · 43°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

NYJ -6.5

Total

38

Model margin

-2.4est.

CHI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Bears
  • Jets

How each play moved the game.

Bears winsJets wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jetsedge mapBears
  • +0.054EPA / play-0.129
  • 44.6%Success rate40.0%
  • +0.132EPA / dropback-0.089
  • -0.055EPA / rush-0.197
  • 9.8%Explosive rate7.5%
  • 40.1%Third-down rate33.7%
  • 52.3%Red-zone TD rate64.5%
  • 1.88Points / drive1.35
  • 1.9%Turnover rate3.2%
  • +0.002EPA / play allowed-0.001

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CHI lead 6–2 since 1999

Meetings average 37.3 points. CHI are 6-1-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W4NYJ @ CHI12–23CHI
2022 · W12CHI @ NYJ10–31NYJ
2018 · W8NYJ @ CHI10–24CHI
2014 · W3CHI @ NYJ27–19CHI
2010 · W16NYJ @ CHI34–38CHI
2006 · W11CHI @ NYJ10–0CHI
2000 · W13CHI @ NYJ10–17NYJ

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYJ–CHI
CHIQ1 15:00418Punt0–0
NYJQ1 12:28614Punt0–0
CHIQ1 9:301444Punt0–0
NYJQ1 0:571071Turnover on downs0–0
CHIQ2 11:34431Field goal0–3
NYJQ2 8:1133Punt0–3
CHIQ2 6:591167Touchdown0–10
NYJQ2 1:36517Punt0–10
CHIQ2 0:2812End of half0–10
NYJQ3 15:00770Touchdown7–10
CHIQ3 10:55648Touchdown7–17
NYJQ3 7:191155Field goal10–17
CHIQ3 0:13621Punt10–17
NYJQ4 12:041143Field goal13–17
CHIQ4 7:221137Field goal13–20
NYJQ4 2:38861Turnover13–20
CHIQ4 1:102-2End of half13–20

Box score

Individual performances

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Chad Pennington22/3320710

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Curtis Martin211276.00
Laveranues Coles155.00
Chad Morton122.00
Chad Pennington100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Laveranues Coles57710
Curtis Martin45330
Wayne Chrebet38301
Chad Morton22130
Santana Moss2470
Anthony Becht1160

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Chris Chandler22/2717700

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Leon Johnson14564.01
Adrian Peterson7395.61
Ahmad Merritt155.00
Chris Chandler331.00
Henry Burris122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marty Booker911620
Dez White45280
John Gilmore33280
Stanley Pritchett12240
Leon Johnson34220
Adrian Peterson11160
Ahmad Merritt11-30

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -6.53.0%4.7%3.1%7.5%7.0%2.7%4.0%

Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Jets.

Half-point at risk

3.09%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

42.7%

Expected total

45.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.22
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment-1.64
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin-2.38