Closing spread
NYJ -6.5
Total
38
Model margin
-2.4est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bears
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.054EPA / play-0.129
- 44.6%Success rate40.0%
- +0.132EPA / dropback-0.089
- -0.055EPA / rush-0.197
- 9.8%Explosive rate7.5%
- 40.1%Third-down rate33.7%
- 52.3%Red-zone TD rate64.5%
- 1.88Points / drive1.35
- 1.9%Turnover rate3.2%
- +0.002EPA / play allowed-0.001
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CHI lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 37.6 points. CHI are 5-1-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Pennington | 22/33 | 207 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Martin | 21 | 127 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Laveranues Coles | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Chad Morton | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Chad Pennington | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Laveranues Coles | 5 | 7 | 71 | 0 |
| Curtis Martin | 4 | 5 | 33 | 0 |
| Wayne Chrebet | 3 | 8 | 30 | 1 |
| Chad Morton | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Santana Moss | 2 | 4 | 7 | 0 |
| Anthony Becht | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Chandler | 22/27 | 177 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leon Johnson | 14 | 56 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Adrian Peterson | 7 | 39 | 5.6 | 1 |
| Ahmad Merritt | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Chris Chandler | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Henry Burris | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marty Booker | 9 | 11 | 62 | 0 |
| Dez White | 4 | 5 | 28 | 0 |
| John Gilmore | 3 | 3 | 28 | 0 |
| Stanley Pritchett | 1 | 2 | 24 | 0 |
| Leon Johnson | 3 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| Adrian Peterson | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Ahmad Merritt | 1 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
3.09%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
42.7%
Expected total
45.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.22
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-1.64
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin-2.38