Closing spread
CHI -5.5
Total
39
Model margin
+2.1est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jets
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.046EPA / play-0.019
- 40.3%Success rate43.0%
- -0.039EPA / dropback+0.057
- -0.054EPA / rush-0.110
- 9.4%Explosive rate6.5%
- -3.50CPOE+2.38
- 37.7%Third-down rate44.6%
- 50.6%Red-zone TD rate49.8%
- 1.80Points / drive1.74
- 3.0%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CHI lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 37.6 points. NYJ are 1-5-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rex Grossman | 11/22 | 119 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Jones | 23 | 121 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Cedric Benson | 10 | 51 | 5.1 | 0 |
| Jason McKie | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Rex Grossman | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Pennington | 19/35 | 162 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cedric Houston | 11 | 50 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Tim Dwight | 1 | 28 | 28.0 | 0 |
| Leon Washington | 13 | 22 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Brad Smith | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Kevan Barlow | 4 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
1.74%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.6%
Expected total
41.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.50
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.06