2000 · Week 13

Final

Bears

Chicago

QB Shane Matthews

10·17

Jets

New York

QB Vinny Testaverde

Giants Stadium · outdoors · grass · 53°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

NYJ -7

Total

39.5

Model margin

+2.8est.

NYJ perspective

Push chance

4.8%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Jets
  • Bears

How each play moved the game.

Jets winsBears wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bearsedge mapJets
  • -0.144EPA / play-0.073
  • 38.4%Success rate39.6%
  • -0.138EPA / dropback-0.022
  • -0.156EPA / rush-0.161
  • 6.1%Explosive rate7.5%
  • 29.8%Third-down rate37.5%
  • 35.6%Red-zone TD rate56.0%
  • 0.80Points / drive1.29
  • 2.7%Turnover rate3.5%
  • -0.018EPA / play allowed-0.101

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CHI lead 6–2 since 1999

Meetings average 37.3 points. NYJ are 1-6-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W4NYJ @ CHI12–23CHI
2022 · W12CHI @ NYJ10–31NYJ
2018 · W8NYJ @ CHI10–24CHI
2014 · W3CHI @ NYJ27–19CHI
2010 · W16NYJ @ CHI34–38CHI
2006 · W11CHI @ NYJ10–0CHI
2002 · W15NYJ @ CHI13–20CHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCHI–NYJ
CHIQ1 15:0036Punt0–0
NYJQ1 13:5335Punt0–0
CHIQ1 12:2149Punt0–0
NYJQ1 11:0332Punt0–0
CHIQ1 10:06633Turnover0–0
NYJQ1 7:01545Touchdown0–7
CHIQ1 4:3233Punt0–7
NYJQ1 3:22411Punt0–7
CHIQ1 1:2813Turnover0–7
NYJQ1 1:20833Field goal0–10
CHIQ2 10:401126Turnover on downs0–10
NYJQ2 5:181165Touchdown0–17
CHIQ2 0:32417End of half0–17
NYJQ3 15:00410Punt0–17
CHIQ3 12:491047Turnover0–17
NYJQ3 7:07633Turnover0–17
CHIQ3 3:1033Field goal3–17
NYJQ3 1:52410Punt3–17
CHIQ4 14:4638Punt3–17
NYJQ4 13:17517Missed field goal3–17
CHIQ4 10:5637Punt3–17
NYJQ4 9:55523Punt3–17
CHIQ4 7:38864Touchdown10–17
NYJQ4 5:14925Punt10–17
CHIQ4 2:0447Turnover on downs10–17
NYJQ4 1:413-2End of half10–17

Box score

Individual performances

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Shane Matthews13/329810

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Allen251224.90
Marlon Barnes3113.70
Curtis Enis122.00
Shane Matthews100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marty Booker56451
James Allen34230
Macey Brooks23190
Marlon Barnes1270
Eddie Kennison1670
Curtis Enis0100
Kaseem Sinceno0100
Marcus Robinson14-30

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Vinny Testaverde20/3421521
Ray Lucas1/1300

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Curtis Martin17291.70
Bernie Parmalee10262.60
Dedric Ward111.00
Vinny Testaverde2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dedric Ward610930
Bernie Parmalee67480
Wayne Chrebet1680
Anthony Becht1321
Windrell Hayes0100
Curtis Martin12-20

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +73.9%2.6%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.0%2.7%

Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Bears.

Half-point at risk

4.76%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.5%

Expected total

43.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.28
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment-1.08
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.76