Closing spread
NYJ -7
Total
39.5
Model margin
+2.8est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
4.8%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Jets
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.144EPA / play-0.073
- 38.4%Success rate39.6%
- -0.138EPA / dropback-0.022
- -0.156EPA / rush-0.161
- 6.1%Explosive rate7.5%
- 29.8%Third-down rate37.5%
- 35.6%Red-zone TD rate56.0%
- 0.80Points / drive1.29
- 2.7%Turnover rate3.5%
- -0.018EPA / play allowed-0.101
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CHI lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 37.6 points. NYJ are 1-5-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shane Matthews | 13/32 | 98 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Allen | 25 | 122 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Marlon Barnes | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Curtis Enis | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Shane Matthews | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marty Booker | 5 | 6 | 45 | 1 |
| James Allen | 3 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| Macey Brooks | 2 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Marlon Barnes | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Eddie Kennison | 1 | 6 | 7 | 0 |
| Curtis Enis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Kaseem Sinceno | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Marcus Robinson | 1 | 4 | -3 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vinny Testaverde | 20/34 | 215 | 2 | 1 |
| Ray Lucas | 1/1 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Martin | 17 | 29 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Bernie Parmalee | 10 | 26 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Dedric Ward | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Vinny Testaverde | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dedric Ward | 6 | 10 | 93 | 0 |
| Bernie Parmalee | 6 | 7 | 48 | 0 |
| Wayne Chrebet | 1 | 6 | 8 | 0 |
| Anthony Becht | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| Windrell Hayes | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Curtis Martin | 1 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
4.76%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.5%
Expected total
43.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.28
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-1.08
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.76