2022 · Week 12

Final

Bears

Chicago

QB Trevor Siemian

10·31

Jets

New York

QB Mike White

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 50°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

NYJ -8.5

Total

36.5

Model margin

+2.0est.

NYJ perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bears

Jets

Win probability

  • Jets
  • Bears

How each play moved the game.

Jets winsBears wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bearsedge mapJets
  • -0.039EPA / play-0.086
  • 41.1%Success rate39.1%
  • -0.070EPA / dropback-0.081
  • -0.004EPA / rush-0.093
  • 10.4%Explosive rate8.2%
  • -4.05CPOE-4.97
  • 41.0%Third-down rate34.3%
  • 60.7%Red-zone TD rate39.8%
  • 1.78Points / drive1.41
  • 2.3%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CHI lead 6–2 since 1999

Meetings average 37.3 points. NYJ are 1-6-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W4NYJ @ CHI12–23CHI
2018 · W8NYJ @ CHI10–24CHI
2014 · W3CHI @ NYJ27–19CHI
2010 · W16NYJ @ CHI34–38CHI
2006 · W11CHI @ NYJ10–0CHI
2002 · W15NYJ @ CHI13–20CHI
2000 · W13CHI @ NYJ10–17NYJ

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCHI–NYJ
NYJQ1 15:001075Touchdown0–7
CHIQ1 10:12871Field goal3–7
NYJQ1 5:5935Punt3–7
CHIQ1 4:11971Touchdown10–7
NYJQ2 14:201057Turnover on downs10–7
CHIQ2 9:2239Punt10–7
NYJQ2 7:11478Touchdown10–14
CHIQ2 4:5738Punt10–14
NYJQ2 3:39939Field goal10–17
CHIQ2 0:1200End of half10–17
CHIQ3 15:003-3Punt10–17
NYJQ3 13:2136Punt10–17
CHIQ3 11:48413Punt10–17
NYJQ3 9:59653Touchdown10–24
CHIQ3 6:35419Punt10–24
NYJQ3 4:19479Touchdown10–31
CHIQ3 2:281458Turnover on downs10–31
NYJQ4 11:03638Missed field goal10–31
CHIQ4 8:05847Turnover10–31
NYJQ4 5:04737End of half10–31

Box score

Individual performances

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Trevor Siemian14/2517911

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
David Montgomery14795.60
Darrynton Evans9343.80
Trevor Siemian482.00
Velus Jones Jr.263.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Chase Claypool25510
David Montgomery34340
Darrynton Evans11330
Cole Kmet36270
Byron Pringle22121
Dante Pettis12120
Equanimeous St. Brown1270
Trevon Wesco1130

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mike White22/2831530

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Bam Knight14694.90
Ty Johnson56212.41
Michael Carter6213.50
Braxton Berrios294.50
Mike White320.70
Garrett Wilson1-1-1.00
Elijah Moore1-4-4.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Garrett Wilson58952
Elijah Moore22641
Tyler Conklin33500
Bam Knight33340
C.J. Uzomah33170
Ty Johnson12160
Michael Carter22150
Denzel Mims11110
Corey Davis1390
Braxton Berrios1140

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +8.52.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Bears.

Half-point at risk

1.19%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.6%

Expected total

44.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.06
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-1.71
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.05