Closing spread
NYJ -8.5
Total
36.5
Model margin
+2.0est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jets
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.039EPA / play-0.086
- 41.1%Success rate39.1%
- -0.070EPA / dropback-0.081
- -0.004EPA / rush-0.093
- 10.4%Explosive rate8.2%
- -4.05CPOE-4.97
- 41.0%Third-down rate34.3%
- 60.7%Red-zone TD rate39.8%
- 1.78Points / drive1.41
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CHI lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 37.6 points. NYJ are 1-5-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Siemian | 14/25 | 179 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Montgomery | 14 | 79 | 5.6 | 0 |
| Darrynton Evans | 9 | 34 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Trevor Siemian | 4 | 8 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Velus Jones Jr. | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Claypool | 2 | 5 | 51 | 0 |
| David Montgomery | 3 | 4 | 34 | 0 |
| Darrynton Evans | 1 | 1 | 33 | 0 |
| Cole Kmet | 3 | 6 | 27 | 0 |
| Byron Pringle | 2 | 2 | 12 | 1 |
| Dante Pettis | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Equanimeous St. Brown | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Trevon Wesco | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike White | 22/28 | 315 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bam Knight | 14 | 69 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Ty Johnson | 5 | 62 | 12.4 | 1 |
| Michael Carter | 6 | 21 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Braxton Berrios | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Mike White | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0 |
| Garrett Wilson | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Elijah Moore | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garrett Wilson | 5 | 8 | 95 | 2 |
| Elijah Moore | 2 | 2 | 64 | 1 |
| Tyler Conklin | 3 | 3 | 50 | 0 |
| Bam Knight | 3 | 3 | 34 | 0 |
| C.J. Uzomah | 3 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Ty Johnson | 1 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Michael Carter | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Denzel Mims | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Corey Davis | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Braxton Berrios | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
1.19%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.6%
Expected total
44.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.06
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-1.71
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.05