Closing spread
CAR -3
Total
41
Model margin
-1.8est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.074EPA / play-0.051
- 45.5%Success rate41.8%
- +0.153EPA / dropback+0.041
- -0.022EPA / rush-0.254
- 10.3%Explosive rate10.1%
- +0.41CPOE-3.08
- 42.1%Third-down rate33.9%
- 71.5%Red-zone TD rate57.0%
- 2.31Points / drive1.59
- 1.8%Turnover rate2.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 4–4 since 1999
JAX have won 2 straight. Meetings average 38.8 points. JAX are 4-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 18/31 | 175 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Stewart | 18 | 56 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Cam Newton | 14 | 35 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Fozzy Whittaker | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ted Ginn | 2 | 7 | 54 | 0 |
| Jerricho Cotchery | 4 | 6 | 45 | 1 |
| Jonathan Stewart | 4 | 4 | 25 | 0 |
| Corey Brown | 2 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Greg Olsen | 1 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Ed Dickson | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Devin Funchess | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Fozzy Whittaker | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Bortles | 22/40 | 183 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.J. Yeldon | 12 | 51 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Blake Bortles | 4 | 26 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Denard Robinson | 5 | 19 | 3.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Allen Hurns | 5 | 7 | 60 | 0 |
| Rashad Greene | 7 | 13 | 28 | 1 |
| Allen Robinson | 1 | 6 | 27 | 0 |
| Denard Robinson | 2 | 2 | 26 | 0 |
| Bryan Walters | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| T.J. Yeldon | 3 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
| Corey Grant | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Bernard Pierce | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Clay Harbor | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Nic Jacobs | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
7.49%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
44.1%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.32
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.83