2015 · Week 1

Final

Panthers

Carolina

QB Cam Newton

20·9

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Blake Bortles

EverBank Field · outdoors · grass · 77°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

CAR -3

Total

41

Model margin

-1.8est.

JAX perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Panthers

Jaguars

Win probability

  • Jaguars
  • Panthers

How each play moved the game.

Jaguars winsPanthers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Panthersedge mapJaguars
  • +0.074EPA / play-0.051
  • 45.5%Success rate41.8%
  • +0.153EPA / dropback+0.041
  • -0.022EPA / rush-0.254
  • 10.3%Explosive rate10.1%
  • +0.41CPOE-3.08
  • 42.1%Third-down rate33.9%
  • 71.5%Red-zone TD rate57.0%
  • 2.31Points / drive1.59
  • 1.8%Turnover rate2.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 4–4 since 1999

JAX have won 2 straight. Meetings average 38.8 points. JAX are 4-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W1CAR @ JAX10–26JAX
2023 · W17CAR @ JAX0–26JAX
2019 · W5JAX @ CAR27–34CAR
2011 · W3JAX @ CAR10–16CAR
2007 · W14CAR @ JAX6–37JAX
2003 · W1JAX @ CAR23–24CAR
1999 · W2JAX @ CAR22–20JAX

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCAR–JAX
JAXQ1 15:0034Punt0–0
CARQ1 13:361455Field goal3–0
JAXQ1 7:4936Punt3–0
CARQ1 6:3831Missed field goal3–0
JAXQ1 5:251054Field goal3–3
CARQ1 0:5939Punt3–3
JAXQ2 14:061063Turnover3–3
CARQ2 9:13315Turnover3–3
JAXQ2 8:113-2Missed field goal3–3
CARQ2 7:191361Touchdown10–3
JAXQ2 1:52965Touchdown10–9
CARQ2 0:1400End of half10–9
CARQ3 15:00632Punt10–9
JAXQ3 11:15516Opp touchdown17–9
JAXQ3 9:01524Punt17–9
CARQ3 6:34728Punt17–9
JAXQ3 2:403-1Punt17–9
CARQ3 1:0436Punt17–9
JAXQ4 14:49724Punt17–9
CARQ4 10:481464Field goal20–9
JAXQ4 2:4110Turnover20–9
CARQ4 2:323-6Missed field goal20–9
JAXQ4 1:09712Turnover on downs20–9
CARQ4 0:0600End of half20–9

Box score

Individual performances

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Cam Newton18/3117511

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jonathan Stewart18563.10
Cam Newton14352.50
Fozzy Whittaker221.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Ted Ginn27540
Jerricho Cotchery46451
Jonathan Stewart44250
Corey Brown23130
Greg Olsen13110
Ed Dickson1290
Devin Funchess1290
Fozzy Whittaker2230

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Blake Bortles22/4018312

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
T.J. Yeldon12514.30
Blake Bortles4266.50
Denard Robinson5193.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Allen Hurns57600
Rashad Greene713281
Allen Robinson16270
Denard Robinson22260
Bryan Walters22170
T.J. Yeldon34160
Corey Grant1150
Bernard Pierce1240
Clay Harbor0100
Nic Jacobs0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -32.9%4.7%3.1%7.5%7.1%2.7%4.1%

Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Panthers.

Half-point at risk

7.49%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

44.1%

Expected total

44.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.32
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.83