2019 · Week 5

Final

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Gardner Minshew

27·34

Panthers

Carolina

QB Kyle Allen

Bank of America Stadium · outdoors · grass · 72°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

CAR -3

Total

41

Model margin

+0.6est.

CAR perspective

Push chance

7.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jaguars

Panthers

Win probability

  • Panthers
  • Jaguars

How each play moved the game.

Panthers winsJaguars wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jaguarsedge mapPanthers
  • -0.053EPA / play-0.082
  • 39.3%Success rate43.3%
  • -0.010EPA / dropback-0.070
  • -0.145EPA / rush-0.106
  • 8.4%Explosive rate7.4%
  • -3.03CPOE-2.45
  • 35.4%Third-down rate32.4%
  • 47.6%Red-zone TD rate59.4%
  • 1.61Points / drive1.56
  • 1.7%Turnover rate2.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 4–4 since 1999

JAX have won 2 straight. Meetings average 38.8 points. CAR are 4-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W1CAR @ JAX10–26JAX
2023 · W17CAR @ JAX0–26JAX
2015 · W1CAR @ JAX20–9CAR
2011 · W3JAX @ CAR10–16CAR
2007 · W14CAR @ JAX6–37JAX
2003 · W1JAX @ CAR23–24CAR
1999 · W2JAX @ CAR22–20JAX

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultJAX–CAR
CARQ1 15:001058Touchdown0–7
JAXQ1 9:23475Touchdown7–7
CARQ1 7:27511Punt7–7
JAXQ1 6:1331Punt7–7
CARQ1 5:0138Punt7–7
JAXQ1 3:3110Turnover7–7
CARQ1 3:26329Touchdown7–14
JAXQ1 1:35831Opp touchdown7–21
JAXQ2 13:3261Punt7–21
CARQ2 10:4134Punt7–21
JAXQ2 9:46683Touchdown14–21
CARQ2 6:07640Missed field goal14–21
JAXQ2 2:57737Field goal17–21
CARQ2 0:5831Punt17–21
JAXQ2 0:3000End of half17–21
JAXQ3 15:0037Punt17–27
CARQ3 14:01184Touchdown17–28
JAXQ3 13:49785Touchdown24–28
CARQ3 10:27732Missed field goal24–28
JAXQ3 6:50724Punt24–28
CARQ3 3:031487Turnover on downs24–28
JAXQ4 11:531073Field goal27–28
CARQ4 5:52475Touchdown27–34
JAXQ4 3:34730Turnover27–34
CARQ4 2:19416Punt27–34
JAXQ4 1:451161End of half27–34
JAXQ4 0:0210End of half27–34
JAXQ4 0:0010End of half27–34

Box score

Individual performances

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Gardner Minshew26/4437420

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Leonard Fournette231084.71
Gardner Minshew7426.00
Ryquell Armstead1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DJ Chark8111642
Dede Westbrook711820
James O'Shaughnessy34570
Leonard Fournette47290
Chris Conley13260
Ryquell Armstead1170
Marqise Lee1250
Geoff Swaim1140

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kyle Allen17/3018110
Christian McCaffrey0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Christian McCaffrey191769.32
Reggie Bonnafon58016.01
Curtis Samuel22512.50
Kyle Allen144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DJ Moore68910
Christian McCaffrey68611
Curtis Samuel36190
Jarius Wright1360
Alex Armah1140
Greg Olsen0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +32.6%4.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Jaguars.

Half-point at risk

7.41%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.8%

Expected total

45.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.10
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.64