Closing spread
CAR -3
Total
41
Model margin
+0.6est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Panthers
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.053EPA / play-0.082
- 39.3%Success rate43.3%
- -0.010EPA / dropback-0.070
- -0.145EPA / rush-0.106
- 8.4%Explosive rate7.4%
- -3.03CPOE-2.45
- 35.4%Third-down rate32.4%
- 47.6%Red-zone TD rate59.4%
- 1.61Points / drive1.56
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 4–4 since 1999
JAX have won 2 straight. Meetings average 38.8 points. CAR are 4-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gardner Minshew | 26/44 | 374 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leonard Fournette | 23 | 108 | 4.7 | 1 |
| Gardner Minshew | 7 | 42 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Ryquell Armstead | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DJ Chark | 8 | 11 | 164 | 2 |
| Dede Westbrook | 7 | 11 | 82 | 0 |
| James O'Shaughnessy | 3 | 4 | 57 | 0 |
| Leonard Fournette | 4 | 7 | 29 | 0 |
| Chris Conley | 1 | 3 | 26 | 0 |
| Ryquell Armstead | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Marqise Lee | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Geoff Swaim | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Allen | 17/30 | 181 | 1 | 0 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | 19 | 176 | 9.3 | 2 |
| Reggie Bonnafon | 5 | 80 | 16.0 | 1 |
| Curtis Samuel | 2 | 25 | 12.5 | 0 |
| Kyle Allen | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DJ Moore | 6 | 8 | 91 | 0 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 6 | 8 | 61 | 1 |
| Curtis Samuel | 3 | 6 | 19 | 0 |
| Jarius Wright | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Alex Armah | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Greg Olsen | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
7.41%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.8%
Expected total
45.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.10
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.64