Closing spread
CAR -3.5
Total
43
Model margin
+2.9est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Panthers
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.173EPA / play+0.102
- 36.3%Success rate44.8%
- -0.210EPA / dropback+0.093
- -0.127EPA / rush+0.115
- 7.6%Explosive rate12.3%
- -11.15CPOE-0.04
- 34.3%Third-down rate38.7%
- 53.9%Red-zone TD rate64.4%
- 1.10Points / drive2.08
- 2.1%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 4–4 since 1999
JAX have won 2 straight. Meetings average 38.8 points. CAR are 4-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blaine Gabbert | 12/21 | 139 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 24 | 122 | 5.1 | 0 |
| Deji Karim | 5 | 4 | 0.8 | 0 |
| Blaine Gabbert | 4 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Thomas | 4 | 8 | 55 | 1 |
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 3 | 3 | 45 | 0 |
| Deji Karim | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Marcedes Lewis | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Jason Hill | 1 | 5 | 5 | 0 |
| Cecil Shorts | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 18/34 | 158 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Stewart | 10 | 59 | 5.9 | 0 |
| Cam Newton | 7 | 27 | 3.9 | 0 |
| DeAngelo Williams | 10 | 18 | 1.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greg Olsen | 7 | 10 | 57 | 1 |
| Jeremy Shockey | 3 | 7 | 30 | 0 |
| Jonathan Stewart | 3 | 4 | 26 | 0 |
| DeAngelo Williams | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Steve Smith | 2 | 7 | 15 | 0 |
| Legedu Naanee | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Mike Goodson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
2.54%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.9%
Expected total
44.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.42
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.91