2011 · Week 3

Final

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Blaine Gabbert

10·16

Panthers

Carolina

QB Cam Newton

Bank of America Stadium · outdoors · grass · 75°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

CAR -3.5

Total

43

Model margin

+2.9est.

CAR perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jaguars

Panthers

Win probability

  • Panthers
  • Jaguars

How each play moved the game.

Panthers winsJaguars wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jaguarsedge mapPanthers
  • -0.173EPA / play+0.102
  • 36.3%Success rate44.8%
  • -0.210EPA / dropback+0.093
  • -0.127EPA / rush+0.115
  • 7.6%Explosive rate12.3%
  • -11.15CPOE-0.04
  • 34.3%Third-down rate38.7%
  • 53.9%Red-zone TD rate64.4%
  • 1.10Points / drive2.08
  • 2.1%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 4–4 since 1999

JAX have won 2 straight. Meetings average 38.8 points. CAR are 4-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W1CAR @ JAX10–26JAX
2023 · W17CAR @ JAX0–26JAX
2019 · W5JAX @ CAR27–34CAR
2015 · W1CAR @ JAX20–9CAR
2007 · W14CAR @ JAX6–37JAX
2003 · W1JAX @ CAR23–24CAR
1999 · W2JAX @ CAR22–20JAX

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultJAX–CAR
CARQ1 15:001135Punt0–0
JAXQ1 9:154-4Safety0–2
CARQ1 7:33622Punt0–2
JAXQ1 4:2033Punt0–2
CARQ1 2:23632Field goal0–5
JAXQ2 14:121145Field goal3–5
CARQ2 7:41839Punt3–5
JAXQ2 3:5730Punt3–5
CARQ2 3:3534Punt3–5
JAXQ2 2:0736Turnover3–5
CARQ2 1:3121Punt3–5
JAXQ2 0:53377Touchdown10–5
JAXQ3 15:001034Punt10–5
CARQ3 8:493-2Punt10–5
JAXQ3 7:5343Turnover on downs10–5
CARQ3 6:31624Field goal10–8
JAXQ3 2:24946Punt10–8
CARQ4 11:46629Punt10–8
JAXQ4 9:24419Punt10–8
CARQ4 6:44555Touchdown10–16
JAXQ4 4:2048Punt10–16
CARQ4 2:48526Punt10–16
JAXQ4 1:02420End of half10–16

Box score

Individual performances

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Blaine Gabbert12/2113911

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Maurice Jones-Drew241225.10
Deji Karim540.80
Blaine Gabbert420.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Thomas48551
Maurice Jones-Drew33450
Deji Karim22190
Marcedes Lewis22150
Jason Hill1550
Cecil Shorts0100

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Cam Newton18/3415810

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jonathan Stewart10595.90
Cam Newton7273.90
DeAngelo Williams10181.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Greg Olsen710571
Jeremy Shockey37300
Jonathan Stewart34260
DeAngelo Williams23170
Steve Smith27150
Legedu Naanee12130
Mike Goodson0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.53.9%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Jaguars.

Half-point at risk

2.54%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.9%

Expected total

44.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.42
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.91