2025 · Week 1

Final

Panthers

Carolina

QB Bryce Young

10·26

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Trevor Lawrence

TIAA Bank Stadium · outdoors · grass · 85°F · wind 3mph

Closing spread

JAX -4.5

Total

45.5

Model margin

+6.8est.

JAX perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Panthers

Jaguars

Win probability

  • Jaguars
  • Panthers

How each play moved the game.

Jaguars winsPanthers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Panthersedge mapJaguars
  • -0.025EPA / play+0.039
  • 43.7%Success rate44.5%
  • +0.007EPA / dropback+0.110
  • -0.072EPA / rush-0.073
  • 8.0%Explosive rate8.3%
  • +1.44CPOE-1.56
  • 35.7%Third-down rate40.9%
  • 61.0%Red-zone TD rate66.3%
  • 1.80Points / drive2.30
  • 2.1%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 4–4 since 1999

JAX have won 2 straight. Meetings average 38.8 points. JAX are 4-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W17CAR @ JAX0–26JAX
2019 · W5JAX @ CAR27–34CAR
2015 · W1CAR @ JAX20–9CAR
2011 · W3JAX @ CAR10–16CAR
2007 · W14CAR @ JAX6–37JAX
2003 · W1JAX @ CAR23–24CAR
1999 · W2JAX @ CAR22–20JAX

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCAR–JAX
JAXQ1 15:001487Field goal0–3
CARQ1 8:151241Field goal3–3
JAXQ1 0:3635Punt3–3
CARQ2 13:2629Turnover3–3
JAXQ2 12:44835Touchdown3–10
CARQ2 8:32939Punt3–10
JAXQ2 3:39491Touchdown3–17
CARQ2 1:49633Turnover3–17
JAXQ2 0:48444Field goal3–20
CARQ2 0:0100End of half3–20
CARQ3 15:00929Turnover on downs3–20
JAXQ3 9:4533Punt3–20
CARQ3 8:49610Punt3–20
JAXQ3 4:39723Turnover3–20
CARQ3 2:00410Turnover on downs3–20
JAXQ3 0:161454Field goal3–23
CARQ4 7:091175Touchdown10–23
JAXQ4 4:47638Field goal10–26
CARQ4 1:57410Turnover10–26
JAXQ4 0:4400End of half10–26

Box score

Individual performances

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Bryce Young18/3515412

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chuba Hubbard16573.60
Bryce Young5408.00
Rico Dowdle3124.00
Trevor Etienne144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tetairoa McMillan59680
Chuba Hubbard35321
Ja'Tavion Sanders23270
Hunter Renfrow26110
Xavier Legette37100
Rico Dowdle2340
Tommy Tremble1120

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Trevor Lawrence19/3117811

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Travis Etienne161438.90
Trevor Lawrence4123.00
Tank Bigsby5122.40
Bhayshul Tuten3113.70
Brian Thomas Jr.199.01
LeQuint Allen Jr.177.00
Dyami Brown263.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brenton Strange44590
Dyami Brown34520
Travis Etienne33130
Brian Thomas Jr.17110
Hunter Long1161
LeQuint Allen Jr.1140
Johnny Mundt0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +4.53.1%5.9%7.3%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.2%2.6%

Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Panthers.

Half-point at risk

1.96%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

67.0%

Expected total

43.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+5.12
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+6.82