Closing spread
JAX -4.5
Total
45.5
Model margin
+6.8est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.025EPA / play+0.039
- 43.7%Success rate44.5%
- +0.007EPA / dropback+0.110
- -0.072EPA / rush-0.073
- 8.0%Explosive rate8.3%
- +1.44CPOE-1.56
- 35.7%Third-down rate40.9%
- 61.0%Red-zone TD rate66.3%
- 1.80Points / drive2.30
- 2.1%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 4–4 since 1999
JAX have won 2 straight. Meetings average 38.8 points. JAX are 4-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce Young | 18/35 | 154 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chuba Hubbard | 16 | 57 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Bryce Young | 5 | 40 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Rico Dowdle | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Trevor Etienne | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tetairoa McMillan | 5 | 9 | 68 | 0 |
| Chuba Hubbard | 3 | 5 | 32 | 1 |
| Ja'Tavion Sanders | 2 | 3 | 27 | 0 |
| Hunter Renfrow | 2 | 6 | 11 | 0 |
| Xavier Legette | 3 | 7 | 10 | 0 |
| Rico Dowdle | 2 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| Tommy Tremble | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Lawrence | 19/31 | 178 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Etienne | 16 | 143 | 8.9 | 0 |
| Trevor Lawrence | 4 | 12 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Tank Bigsby | 5 | 12 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Bhayshul Tuten | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Brian Thomas Jr. | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 1 |
| LeQuint Allen Jr. | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Dyami Brown | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brenton Strange | 4 | 4 | 59 | 0 |
| Dyami Brown | 3 | 4 | 52 | 0 |
| Travis Etienne | 3 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Brian Thomas Jr. | 1 | 7 | 11 | 0 |
| Hunter Long | 1 | 1 | 6 | 1 |
| LeQuint Allen Jr. | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Johnny Mundt | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
1.96%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
67.0%
Expected total
43.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+5.12
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.82