Closing spread
JAX -3.5
Total
38
Model margin
+5.1est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.160EPA / play-0.032
- 38.2%Success rate43.1%
- -0.163EPA / dropback+0.053
- -0.155EPA / rush-0.192
- 6.3%Explosive rate7.1%
- -1.80CPOE+1.62
- 34.8%Third-down rate38.5%
- 42.3%Red-zone TD rate56.5%
- 1.00Points / drive1.84
- 1.8%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 4–4 since 1999
JAX have won 2 straight. Meetings average 38.8 points. JAX are 4-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce Young | 19/32 | 112 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chuba Hubbard | 11 | 45 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Miles Sanders | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Bryce Young | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Ihmir Smith-Marsette | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Thielen | 6 | 6 | 38 | 0 |
| Chuba Hubbard | 4 | 5 | 26 | 0 |
| DJ Chark | 1 | 6 | 18 | 0 |
| Miles Sanders | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Ihmir Smith-Marsette | 3 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Tommy Tremble | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Ian Thomas | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Stephen Sullivan | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Jonathan Mingo | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Beathard | 17/24 | 178 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Etienne | 16 | 102 | 6.4 | 2 |
| Tank Bigsby | 10 | 32 | 3.2 | 0 |
| C.J. Beathard | 3 | 24 | 8.0 | 0 |
| D'Ernest Johnson | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Matt Barkley | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evan Engram | 6 | 6 | 60 | 0 |
| Jamal Agnew | 2 | 2 | 53 | 0 |
| Calvin Ridley | 4 | 8 | 39 | 0 |
| Travis Etienne | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Luke Farrell | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Parker Washington | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Brenton Strange | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Tim Jones | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.5%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.80
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+0.56
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.06