2023 · Week 17

Final

Panthers

Carolina

QB Bryce Young

0·26

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB C.J. Beathard

TIAA Bank Stadium · outdoors · grass · 56°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

JAX -3.5

Total

38

Model margin

+5.1est.

JAX perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Panthers

Jaguars

Win probability

  • Jaguars
  • Panthers

How each play moved the game.

Jaguars winsPanthers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Panthersedge mapJaguars
  • -0.160EPA / play-0.032
  • 38.2%Success rate43.1%
  • -0.163EPA / dropback+0.053
  • -0.155EPA / rush-0.192
  • 6.3%Explosive rate7.1%
  • -1.80CPOE+1.62
  • 34.8%Third-down rate38.5%
  • 42.3%Red-zone TD rate56.5%
  • 1.00Points / drive1.84
  • 1.8%Turnover rate2.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 4–4 since 1999

JAX have won 2 straight. Meetings average 38.8 points. JAX are 4-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W1CAR @ JAX10–26JAX
2019 · W5JAX @ CAR27–34CAR
2015 · W1CAR @ JAX20–9CAR
2011 · W3JAX @ CAR10–16CAR
2007 · W14CAR @ JAX6–37JAX
2003 · W1JAX @ CAR23–24CAR
1999 · W2JAX @ CAR22–20JAX

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCAR–JAX
JAXQ1 15:001243Field goal0–3
CARQ1 8:361344Turnover on downs0–3
JAXQ1 2:10518Punt0–3
CARQ2 14:463-8Punt0–3
JAXQ2 13:051154Field goal0–6
CARQ2 7:184-8Punt0–6
JAXQ2 4:35554Field goal0–9
CARQ2 2:4530Punt0–9
JAXQ2 1:483-3Punt0–9
CARQ2 0:4836Punt0–9
JAXQ2 0:2000End of half0–9
CARQ3 15:0037Punt0–9
JAXQ3 12:47266Touchdown0–16
CARQ3 11:5638Punt0–16
JAXQ3 10:241252Field goal0–19
CARQ3 3:001450Turnover on downs0–19
JAXQ4 9:5337Punt0–19
CARQ4 7:2445Turnover on downs0–19
JAXQ4 6:24415Touchdown0–26
CARQ4 4:16420Turnover0–26
JAXQ4 2:52215End of half0–26

Box score

Individual performances

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Bryce Young19/3211201

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chuba Hubbard11454.10
Miles Sanders2105.00
Bryce Young122.00
Ihmir Smith-Marsette100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Adam Thielen66380
Chuba Hubbard45260
DJ Chark16180
Miles Sanders22120
Ihmir Smith-Marsette33120
Tommy Tremble1360
Ian Thomas0100
Stephen Sullivan0200
Jonathan Mingo2300

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
C.J. Beathard17/2417800

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Travis Etienne161026.42
Tank Bigsby10323.20
C.J. Beathard3248.00
D'Ernest Johnson300.00
Matt Barkley3-3-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Evan Engram66600
Jamal Agnew22530
Calvin Ridley48390
Travis Etienne22160
Luke Farrell1170
Parker Washington1120
Brenton Strange1210
Tim Jones0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.53.5%6.4%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.3%3.0%

Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Panthers.

Half-point at risk

2.55%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

62.5%

Expected total

43.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.80
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.56
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.06