Closing spread
JAX -11
Total
39
Model margin
+7.0est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
1.6%est.
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.088EPA / play+0.108
- 38.9%Success rate44.1%
- -0.070EPA / dropback+0.191
- -0.111EPA / rush+0.015
- 7.7%Explosive rate10.4%
- -5.47CPOE+2.15
- 36.1%Third-down rate47.2%
- 53.0%Red-zone TD rate66.6%
- 1.27Points / drive2.25
- 2.6%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 4–4 since 1999
JAX have won 2 straight. Meetings average 38.8 points. JAX are 4-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vinny Testaverde | 13/28 | 84 | 0 | 1 |
| Matt Moore | 3/10 | 21 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeShaun Foster | 11 | 46 | 4.2 | 0 |
| DeAngelo Williams | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Vinny Testaverde | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Garrard | 20/36 | 230 | 2 | 0 |
| Quinn Gray | 1/1 | 19 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Taylor | 18 | 132 | 7.3 | 1 |
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 11 | 24 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Quinn Gray | 4 | 13 | 3.3 | 0 |
| David Garrard | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
1.64%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
67.5%
Expected total
45.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.47
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+7.03