2007 · Week 14

Final

Panthers

Carolina

QB Vinny Testaverde

6·37

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB David Garrard

Jacksonville Municipal Stadium · outdoors · grass · 77°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

JAX -11

Total

39

Model margin

+7.0est.

JAX perspective

Push chance

1.6%est.

Win probability

  • Jaguars
  • Panthers

How each play moved the game.

Jaguars winsPanthers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Panthersedge mapJaguars
  • -0.088EPA / play+0.108
  • 38.9%Success rate44.1%
  • -0.070EPA / dropback+0.191
  • -0.111EPA / rush+0.015
  • 7.7%Explosive rate10.4%
  • -5.47CPOE+2.15
  • 36.1%Third-down rate47.2%
  • 53.0%Red-zone TD rate66.6%
  • 1.27Points / drive2.25
  • 2.6%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 4–4 since 1999

JAX have won 2 straight. Meetings average 38.8 points. JAX are 4-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W1CAR @ JAX10–26JAX
2023 · W17CAR @ JAX0–26JAX
2019 · W5JAX @ CAR27–34CAR
2015 · W1CAR @ JAX20–9CAR
2011 · W3JAX @ CAR10–16CAR
2003 · W1JAX @ CAR23–24CAR
1999 · W2JAX @ CAR22–20JAX

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCAR–JAX
JAXQ1 15:001225Punt0–0
CARQ1 10:03520Punt0–0
JAXQ1 7:15865Touchdown0–7
CARQ1 3:3035Punt0–7
JAXQ1 2:22726Turnover on downs0–7
CARQ2 14:07627Field goal3–7
JAXQ2 11:281172Field goal3–10
CARQ2 5:334-1Punt3–10
JAXQ2 3:5548Turnover3–10
CARQ2 2:14416Field goal6–10
JAXQ2 1:0338End of half6–10
CARQ3 15:0011Turnover6–10
JAXQ3 14:49621Touchdown6–17
CARQ3 11:28514Punt6–17
JAXQ3 8:251372Field goal6–20
CARQ3 1:21511Opp touchdown6–27
CARQ4 14:501435Turnover on downs6–33
JAXQ4 10:01180Touchdown6–34
CARQ4 9:48713Turnover on downs6–34
JAXQ4 8:15836Field goal6–37
CARQ4 3:1538Punt6–37
JAXQ4 2:44316End of half6–37

Box score

Individual performances

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Vinny Testaverde13/288401
Matt Moore3/102100

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
DeShaun Foster11464.20
DeAngelo Williams372.30
Vinny Testaverde1-3-3.00

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
David Garrard20/3623020
Quinn Gray1/11900

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Fred Taylor181327.31
Maurice Jones-Drew11242.20
Quinn Gray4133.30
David Garrard188.00

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +115.9%7.2%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.3%2.6%

Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Panthers.

Half-point at risk

1.64%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

67.5%

Expected total

45.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.47
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+7.03