2003 · Week 1

Final

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Mark Brunell

23·24

Panthers

Carolina

QB Rodney Peete

Ericsson Stadium · outdoors · grass · 72°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

CAR -4

Total

34.5

Model margin

+4.0est.

CAR perspective

Push chance

2.6%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Panthers
  • Jaguars

How each play moved the game.

Panthers winsJaguars wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jaguarsedge mapPanthers
  • -0.032EPA / play-0.070
  • 41.2%Success rate39.3%
  • -0.002EPA / dropback-0.010
  • -0.070EPA / rush-0.132
  • 8.9%Explosive rate10.2%
  • 36.7%Third-down rate35.8%
  • 52.7%Red-zone TD rate54.6%
  • 1.46Points / drive1.35
  • 2.7%Turnover rate2.8%
  • -0.021EPA / play allowed-0.075

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 4–4 since 1999

JAX have won 2 straight. Meetings average 38.8 points. CAR are 4-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W1CAR @ JAX10–26JAX
2023 · W17CAR @ JAX0–26JAX
2019 · W5JAX @ CAR27–34CAR
2015 · W1CAR @ JAX20–9CAR
2011 · W3JAX @ CAR10–16CAR
2007 · W14CAR @ JAX6–37JAX
1999 · W2JAX @ CAR22–20JAX

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultJAX–CAR
CARQ1 15:00426Punt0–0
JAXQ1 12:54622Punt0–0
CARQ1 8:3238Punt0–0
JAXQ1 6:173-5Punt0–0
CARQ1 4:0836Punt0–0
JAXQ1 2:4538Punt0–0
CARQ1 1:3132Punt0–0
JAXQ2 14:52418Turnover0–0
CARQ2 12:263-8Punt0–0
JAXQ2 10:581060Touchdown7–0
CARQ2 4:4640Punt7–0
JAXQ2 3:5334Punt7–0
JAXQ2 1:5100Punt7–0
CARQ2 1:422-6Punt7–0
CARQ2 0:5218Punt7–0
JAXQ2 0:29458Touchdown14–0
JAXQ3 15:00949Field goal17–0
CARQ3 8:52537Touchdown17–7
JAXQ3 6:4247Punt17–7
CARQ3 4:34931Field goal17–10
JAXQ4 14:55411Safety17–12
CARQ4 12:56523Turnover17–12
JAXQ4 10:0433Punt17–12
CARQ4 8:20752Touchdown17–18
JAXQ4 6:10271Touchdown23–18
CARQ4 5:1434Turnover23–18
JAXQ4 4:433-1Punt23–18
CARQ4 3:341359Touchdown23–24
JAXQ4 0:16226Missed field goal23–24

Box score

Individual performances

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mark Brunell23/2727220

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Fred Taylor22713.20
LaBrandon Toefield242.00
Mark Brunell3-2-0.70

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jake Delhomme12/2012232
Rodney Peete4/101900

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Stephen Davis221115.00
DeShaun Foster166.00
Nick Goings144.00
Jake Delhomme310.30

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +43.7%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Jaguars.

Half-point at risk

2.55%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.7%

Expected total

42.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.57
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.15
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.98