Closing spread
CAR -4
Total
34.5
Model margin
+4.0est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
2.6%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Panthers
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.032EPA / play-0.070
- 41.2%Success rate39.3%
- -0.002EPA / dropback-0.010
- -0.070EPA / rush-0.132
- 8.9%Explosive rate10.2%
- 36.7%Third-down rate35.8%
- 52.7%Red-zone TD rate54.6%
- 1.46Points / drive1.35
- 2.7%Turnover rate2.8%
- -0.021EPA / play allowed-0.075
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 4–4 since 1999
JAX have won 2 straight. Meetings average 38.8 points. CAR are 4-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Brunell | 23/27 | 272 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Taylor | 22 | 71 | 3.2 | 0 |
| LaBrandon Toefield | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Mark Brunell | 3 | -2 | -0.7 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Delhomme | 12/20 | 122 | 3 | 2 |
| Rodney Peete | 4/10 | 19 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Davis | 22 | 111 | 5.0 | 0 |
| DeShaun Foster | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Nick Goings | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Jake Delhomme | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.7%
Expected total
42.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.57
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-0.15
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.98