Closing spread
JAX -9.5
Total
44
Model margin
+1.4est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Panthers
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.048EPA / play+0.026
- 42.5%Success rate42.4%
- +0.145EPA / dropback+0.116
- -0.086EPA / rush-0.151
- 8.0%Explosive rate9.7%
- 40.4%Third-down rate38.5%
- 46.2%Red-zone TD rate68.1%
- 1.75Points / drive1.98
- 1.5%Turnover rate2.9%
- -0.127EPA / play allowed+0.053
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 4–4 since 1999
JAX have won 2 straight. Meetings average 38.8 points. CAR are 4-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Brunell | 20/32 | 214 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Stewart | 27 | 124 | 4.6 | 2 |
| Tavian Banks | 8 | 43 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Fred Taylor | 5 | 27 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Mark Brunell | 6 | 20 | 3.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Smith | 10 | 14 | 115 | 0 |
| Damon Jones | 1 | 2 | 31 | 0 |
| Kyle Brady | 3 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Keenan McCardell | 2 | 6 | 22 | 0 |
| James Stewart | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Tavian Banks | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Reggie Barlow | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Beuerlein | 16/26 | 216 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Biakabutuka | 6 | 47 | 7.8 | 0 |
| Fred Lane | 8 | 32 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Anthony Johnson | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Steve Beuerlein | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Muhsin Muhammad | 4 | 8 | 103 | 1 |
| Wesley Walls | 5 | 6 | 53 | 2 |
| Rae Carruth | 2 | 5 | 27 | 0 |
| Fred Lane | 1 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Tim Biakabutuka | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Anthony Johnson | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
1.02%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.9%
Expected total
46.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.13
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.44