1999 · Week 2

Final

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Mark Brunell

22·20

Panthers

Carolina

QB Steve Beuerlein

Ericsson Stadium · outdoors · grass · 74°F · wind 3mph

Closing spread

JAX -9.5

Total

44

Model margin

+1.4est.

CAR perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Panthers
  • Jaguars

How each play moved the game.

Panthers winsJaguars wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jaguarsedge mapPanthers
  • +0.048EPA / play+0.026
  • 42.5%Success rate42.4%
  • +0.145EPA / dropback+0.116
  • -0.086EPA / rush-0.151
  • 8.0%Explosive rate9.7%
  • 40.4%Third-down rate38.5%
  • 46.2%Red-zone TD rate68.1%
  • 1.75Points / drive1.98
  • 1.5%Turnover rate2.9%
  • -0.127EPA / play allowed+0.053

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 4–4 since 1999

JAX have won 2 straight. Meetings average 38.8 points. CAR are 4-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W1CAR @ JAX10–26JAX
2023 · W17CAR @ JAX0–26JAX
2019 · W5JAX @ CAR27–34CAR
2015 · W1CAR @ JAX20–9CAR
2011 · W3JAX @ CAR10–16CAR
2007 · W14CAR @ JAX6–37JAX
2003 · W1JAX @ CAR23–24CAR

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultJAX–CAR
CARQ1 15:00422Punt0–0
JAXQ1 12:161169Field goal3–0
CARQ1 5:4237Punt3–0
JAXQ1 3:351270Field goal6–0
CARQ2 12:50523Punt6–0
JAXQ2 9:254-4Punt6–0
CARQ2 8:041071Touchdown6–7
JAXQ2 3:0637Punt6–7
CARQ2 1:58260Touchdown6–14
JAXQ2 1:2849Punt6–14
CARQ2 0:4412End of half6–14
JAXQ3 15:001669Touchdown12–14
CARQ3 7:31333Turnover12–14
JAXQ3 5:581684Turnover12–14
CARQ4 13:2043Punt12–14
JAXQ4 11:23431Field goal15–14
CARQ4 10:223-7Punt15–14
JAXQ4 8:261136Missed field goal15–14
CARQ4 2:3554Turnover on downs21–14
JAXQ4 1:55144Touchdown22–14
CARQ4 1:48965Touchdown22–20
JAXQ4 0:3100End of half22–20

Box score

Individual performances

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mark Brunell20/3221400

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Stewart271244.62
Tavian Banks8435.40
Fred Taylor5275.40
Mark Brunell6203.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jimmy Smith10141150
Damon Jones12310
Kyle Brady33220
Keenan McCardell26220
James Stewart11110
Tavian Banks1160
Reggie Barlow1210

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Steve Beuerlein16/2621631

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tim Biakabutuka6477.80
Fred Lane8324.00
Anthony Johnson122.00
Steve Beuerlein111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Muhsin Muhammad481031
Wesley Walls56532
Rae Carruth25270
Fred Lane12180
Tim Biakabutuka1120
Anthony Johnson1100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -9.54.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%

Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Jaguars.

Half-point at risk

1.02%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.9%

Expected total

46.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.13
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.44