2015 · Week 2

Final

Texans

Houston

QB Ryan Mallett

17·24

Panthers

Carolina

QB Cam Newton

Bank of America Stadium · outdoors · grass · 88°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

CAR -3

Total

41

Model margin

+3.8est.

CAR perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Texans

Panthers

Win probability

  • Panthers
  • Texans

How each play moved the game.

Panthers winsTexans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Texansedge mapPanthers
  • -0.055EPA / play+0.074
  • 40.4%Success rate45.5%
  • +0.022EPA / dropback+0.153
  • -0.172EPA / rush-0.022
  • 7.4%Explosive rate10.3%
  • -4.17CPOE+0.41
  • 39.6%Third-down rate42.1%
  • 62.4%Red-zone TD rate71.5%
  • 1.50Points / drive2.31
  • 1.7%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CAR lead 5–2 since 1999

CAR have won 5 straight. Meetings average 35.4 points. CAR are 5-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W8HOU @ CAR13–15CAR
2021 · W3CAR @ HOU24–9CAR
2019 · W4CAR @ HOU16–10CAR
2011 · W15CAR @ HOU28–13CAR
2007 · W2HOU @ CAR34–21HOU
2003 · W9CAR @ HOU10–14HOU

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultHOU–CAR
CARQ1 15:0030Punt0–0
HOUQ1 14:363-6Punt0–0
CARQ1 13:1236Punt0–0
HOUQ1 11:521344Field goal3–0
CARQ1 7:57414Punt3–0
HOUQ1 6:10918Turnover on downs3–0
CARQ1 2:56721Punt3–0
HOUQ2 14:4635Punt3–0
CARQ2 13:26574Touchdown3–7
HOUQ2 11:22414Punt3–7
CARQ2 10:051051Field goal3–10
HOUQ2 5:2631Punt3–10
CARQ2 4:33529Turnover3–10
HOUQ2 2:40516Punt3–10
CARQ2 1:3833Punt3–10
HOUQ2 1:1131Punt3–10
CARQ2 0:35214End of half3–10
HOUQ3 15:001380Touchdown10–10
CARQ3 8:291666Touchdown10–17
HOUQ3 1:04421Punt10–17
CARQ4 14:486-1Punt10–17
HOUQ4 11:4630Punt10–17
CARQ4 11:2232Punt10–17
HOUQ4 9:522-3Turnover10–23
CARQ4 9:02136Touchdown10–24
HOUQ4 8:53780Touchdown17–24
CARQ4 6:31636Missed field goal17–24
HOUQ4 2:441429Turnover on downs17–24
CARQ4 0:0500End of half17–24

Box score

Individual performances

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Mallett27/5824411

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Polk14382.70
Jonathan Grimes273.50
Ryan Mallett166.01
Alfred Blue561.20

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Nate Washington38630
DeAndre Hopkins511530
Jonathan Grimes67400
Cecil Shorts612340
C.J. Fiedorowicz11190
Chandler Worthy22150
Chris Polk2890
Garrett Graham1571
Alfred Blue1140
Keith Mumphery0200

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Cam Newton18/3719521

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Cam Newton10767.61
Jonathan Stewart17623.60
Fozzy Whittaker133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Greg Olsen614700
Corey Brown34571
Ted Ginn49411
Devin Funchess14150
Jerricho Cotchery11110
Kevin Norwood0100
Jonathan Stewart11-30

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +33.7%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Texans.

Half-point at risk

7.51%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.2%

Expected total

43.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.90
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.42
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.81