Closing spread
CAR -3
Total
41
Model margin
+3.8est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Panthers
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.055EPA / play+0.074
- 40.4%Success rate45.5%
- +0.022EPA / dropback+0.153
- -0.172EPA / rush-0.022
- 7.4%Explosive rate10.3%
- -4.17CPOE+0.41
- 39.6%Third-down rate42.1%
- 62.4%Red-zone TD rate71.5%
- 1.50Points / drive2.31
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CAR lead 5–2 since 1999
CAR have won 5 straight. Meetings average 35.4 points. CAR are 5-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Mallett | 27/58 | 244 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Polk | 14 | 38 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Jonathan Grimes | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Ryan Mallett | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 1 |
| Alfred Blue | 5 | 6 | 1.2 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nate Washington | 3 | 8 | 63 | 0 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 5 | 11 | 53 | 0 |
| Jonathan Grimes | 6 | 7 | 40 | 0 |
| Cecil Shorts | 6 | 12 | 34 | 0 |
| C.J. Fiedorowicz | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 |
| Chandler Worthy | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Chris Polk | 2 | 8 | 9 | 0 |
| Garrett Graham | 1 | 5 | 7 | 1 |
| Alfred Blue | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Keith Mumphery | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 18/37 | 195 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 10 | 76 | 7.6 | 1 |
| Jonathan Stewart | 17 | 62 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Fozzy Whittaker | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greg Olsen | 6 | 14 | 70 | 0 |
| Corey Brown | 3 | 4 | 57 | 1 |
| Ted Ginn | 4 | 9 | 41 | 1 |
| Devin Funchess | 1 | 4 | 15 | 0 |
| Jerricho Cotchery | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Kevin Norwood | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jonathan Stewart | 1 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
7.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.2%
Expected total
43.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.90
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+0.42
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.81