2019 · Week 4

Final

Panthers

Carolina

QB Kyle Allen

16·10

Texans

Houston

QB Deshaun Watson

NRG Stadium · closed · grass

Closing spread

HOU -5.5

Total

47.5

Model margin

+3.4est.

HOU perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Panthers

Texans

Win probability

  • Texans
  • Panthers

How each play moved the game.

Texans winsPanthers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Panthersedge mapTexans
  • -0.082EPA / play+0.057
  • 43.3%Success rate45.6%
  • -0.070EPA / dropback+0.132
  • -0.106EPA / rush-0.071
  • 7.4%Explosive rate8.7%
  • -2.45CPOE+1.12
  • 32.4%Third-down rate43.7%
  • 59.4%Red-zone TD rate70.6%
  • 1.56Points / drive2.18
  • 2.9%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CAR lead 5–2 since 1999

CAR have won 5 straight. Meetings average 35.4 points. HOU are 2-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W8HOU @ CAR13–15CAR
2021 · W3CAR @ HOU24–9CAR
2015 · W2HOU @ CAR17–24CAR
2011 · W15CAR @ HOU28–13CAR
2007 · W2HOU @ CAR34–21HOU
2003 · W9CAR @ HOU10–14HOU

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCAR–HOU
CARQ1 15:00626Turnover0–0
HOUQ1 12:041216Punt0–0
CARQ1 4:55529Field goal3–0
HOUQ1 2:23841Missed field goal3–0
CARQ2 13:3536Punt3–0
HOUQ2 12:341176Field goal3–3
CARQ2 7:59724Turnover3–3
HOUQ2 4:18428Turnover3–3
CARQ2 2:16554Touchdown10–3
HOUQ2 1:0837Punt10–3
CARQ2 0:39421Punt10–3
HOUQ2 0:04112End of half10–3
HOUQ3 15:00519Punt10–3
CARQ3 12:224-3Turnover10–3
HOUQ3 10:27418Touchdown10–10
CARQ3 8:39833Punt10–10
HOUQ3 5:0035Punt10–10
CARQ3 3:40937Field goal13–10
HOUQ4 14:504-4Punt13–10
CARQ4 12:471040Punt13–10
HOUQ4 7:03718Turnover13–10
CARQ4 4:05630Field goal16–10
HOUQ4 0:28428End of half16–10

Box score

Individual performances

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kyle Allen24/3423200

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Christian McCaffrey27933.41
Curtis Samuel111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Christian McCaffrey1010860
Jarius Wright56590
DJ Moore35440
Curtis Samuel37320
Chris Hogan1160
Greg Olsen2450

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Deshaun Watson21/3316000
DeAndre Hopkins0/1001

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Carlos Hyde12584.80
Duke Johnson6569.30
Deshaun Watson3124.01
Keke Coutee11010.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeAndre Hopkins58410
Kenny Stills22240
Will Fuller36230
Duke Johnson23220
Jordan Akins34210
Darren Fells11120
Keke Coutee13110
Carlos Hyde4560

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +5.53.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Panthers.

Half-point at risk

3.14%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.1%

Expected total

45.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.63
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.37