Closing spread
HOU -5.5
Total
47.5
Model margin
+3.4est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Texans
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.082EPA / play+0.057
- 43.3%Success rate45.6%
- -0.070EPA / dropback+0.132
- -0.106EPA / rush-0.071
- 7.4%Explosive rate8.7%
- -2.45CPOE+1.12
- 32.4%Third-down rate43.7%
- 59.4%Red-zone TD rate70.6%
- 1.56Points / drive2.18
- 2.9%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CAR lead 5–2 since 1999
CAR have won 5 straight. Meetings average 35.4 points. HOU are 2-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Allen | 24/34 | 232 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | 27 | 93 | 3.4 | 1 |
| Curtis Samuel | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | 10 | 10 | 86 | 0 |
| Jarius Wright | 5 | 6 | 59 | 0 |
| DJ Moore | 3 | 5 | 44 | 0 |
| Curtis Samuel | 3 | 7 | 32 | 0 |
| Chris Hogan | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Greg Olsen | 2 | 4 | 5 | 0 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deshaun Watson | 21/33 | 160 | 0 | 0 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Hyde | 12 | 58 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Duke Johnson | 6 | 56 | 9.3 | 0 |
| Deshaun Watson | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Keke Coutee | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAndre Hopkins | 5 | 8 | 41 | 0 |
| Kenny Stills | 2 | 2 | 24 | 0 |
| Will Fuller | 3 | 6 | 23 | 0 |
| Duke Johnson | 2 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Jordan Akins | 3 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| Darren Fells | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Keke Coutee | 1 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Carlos Hyde | 4 | 5 | 6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
3.14%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.1%
Expected total
45.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.63
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.37