Closing spread
HOU -3
Total
43
Model margin
-1.3est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Panthers
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.023EPA / play-0.160
- 41.4%Success rate38.2%
- +0.063EPA / dropback-0.163
- -0.164EPA / rush-0.155
- 9.8%Explosive rate6.3%
- -1.53CPOE-1.80
- 37.7%Third-down rate34.8%
- 58.4%Red-zone TD rate42.3%
- 1.91Points / drive1.00
- 1.2%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CAR lead 5–2 since 1999
CAR have won 5 straight. Meetings average 35.4 points. CAR are 5-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Stroud | 16/24 | 140 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dameon Pierce | 12 | 46 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Devin Singletary | 10 | 30 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Tank Dell | 3 | 15 | 5.0 | 0 |
| C.J. Stroud | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 1 |
| Mike Boone | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Brown | 3 | 5 | 57 | 0 |
| Nico Collins | 4 | 6 | 30 | 0 |
| Tank Dell | 3 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
| Devin Singletary | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Mike Boone | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Dalton Schultz | 2 | 5 | 5 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce Young | 22/31 | 235 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chuba Hubbard | 15 | 28 | 1.9 | 0 |
| Bryce Young | 4 | 11 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Raheem Blackshear | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Miles Sanders | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Thielen | 8 | 11 | 72 | 0 |
| Jonathan Mingo | 4 | 5 | 62 | 0 |
| Chuba Hubbard | 2 | 2 | 26 | 0 |
| Raheem Blackshear | 2 | 2 | 26 | 0 |
| DJ Chark | 2 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| Stephen Sullivan | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Terrace Marshall Jr. | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Tommy Tremble | 2 | 3 | 4 | 1 |
| Hayden Hurst | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
7.47%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
45.5%
Expected total
42.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.03
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.32