2023 · Week 8

Final

Texans

Houston

QB C.J. Stroud

13·15

Panthers

Carolina

QB Bryce Young

Bank of America Stadium · outdoors · grass · 77°F · wind 14mph

Closing spread

HOU -3

Total

43

Model margin

-1.3est.

CAR perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Texans

Panthers

Win probability

  • Panthers
  • Texans

How each play moved the game.

Panthers winsTexans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Texansedge mapPanthers
  • -0.023EPA / play-0.160
  • 41.4%Success rate38.2%
  • +0.063EPA / dropback-0.163
  • -0.164EPA / rush-0.155
  • 9.8%Explosive rate6.3%
  • -1.53CPOE-1.80
  • 37.7%Third-down rate34.8%
  • 58.4%Red-zone TD rate42.3%
  • 1.91Points / drive1.00
  • 1.2%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CAR lead 5–2 since 1999

CAR have won 5 straight. Meetings average 35.4 points. CAR are 5-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2021 · W3CAR @ HOU24–9CAR
2019 · W4CAR @ HOU16–10CAR
2015 · W2HOU @ CAR17–24CAR
2011 · W15CAR @ HOU28–13CAR
2007 · W2HOU @ CAR34–21HOU
2003 · W9CAR @ HOU10–14HOU

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultHOU–CAR
HOUQ1 15:0038Punt0–0
CARQ1 13:404-3Punt0–0
HOUQ1 11:4948Punt0–0
CARQ1 9:40421Punt0–0
HOUQ1 7:331792Touchdown7–0
CARQ2 13:131149Turnover on downs7–0
HOUQ2 7:4358Punt7–0
CARQ2 4:531160Touchdown7–6
HOUQ2 1:353-13Punt7–6
CARQ2 1:0644End of half7–6
CARQ3 15:00849Field goal7–9
HOUQ3 10:46211Turnover7–9
CARQ3 9:5538Field goal7–12
HOUQ3 7:581380Touchdown13–12
CARQ3 0:353-10Punt13–12
HOUQ4 13:32518Punt13–12
CARQ4 10:363-12Punt13–12
HOUQ4 8:30517Punt13–12
CARQ4 6:171658Field goal13–15

Box score

Individual performances

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
C.J. Stroud16/2414000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Dameon Pierce12463.80
Devin Singletary10303.00
Tank Dell3155.00
C.J. Stroud2136.51
Mike Boone155.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Noah Brown35570
Nico Collins46300
Tank Dell34160
Devin Singletary22130
Mike Boone11110
Dalton Schultz2550

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Bryce Young22/3123510

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chuba Hubbard15281.90
Bryce Young4112.80
Raheem Blackshear351.70
Miles Sanders200.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Adam Thielen811720
Jonathan Mingo45620
Chuba Hubbard22260
Raheem Blackshear22260
DJ Chark24230
Stephen Sullivan11130
Terrace Marshall Jr.1190
Tommy Tremble2341
Hayden Hurst0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -32.9%4.6%3.0%7.5%7.2%2.8%4.2%

Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Texans.

Half-point at risk

7.47%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

45.5%

Expected total

42.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.03
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.32