Closing spread
CAR -6
Total
37
Model margin
+1.3est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
2.8%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Texans
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.070EPA / play-0.099
- 39.3%Success rate38.7%
- -0.010EPA / dropback-0.096
- -0.132EPA / rush-0.102
- 10.2%Explosive rate9.0%
- 35.8%Third-down rate30.8%
- 54.6%Red-zone TD rate65.8%
- 1.35Points / drive1.15
- 2.8%Turnover rate2.8%
- -0.075EPA / play allowed+0.041
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CAR lead 5–2 since 1999
CAR have won 5 straight. Meetings average 35.4 points. HOU are 2-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Delhomme | 13/23 | 193 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Davis | 30 | 153 | 5.1 | 0 |
| DeShaun Foster | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Steve Smith | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Jake Delhomme | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Banks | 13/19 | 154 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Domanick Williams | 12 | 74 | 6.2 | 0 |
| Stacey Mack | 15 | 26 | 1.7 | 1 |
| Tony Banks | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Tony Hollings | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
2.80%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.6%
Expected total
42.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.38
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+2.13
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.31