2021 · Week 3

Final

Panthers

Carolina

QB Sam Darnold

24·9

Texans

Houston

QB Davis Mills

NRG Stadium · closed · astroturf

Closing spread

CAR -8

Total

43

Model margin

+2.8est.

HOU perspective

Push chance

1.7%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Panthers

Texans

Win probability

  • Texans
  • Panthers

How each play moved the game.

Texans winsPanthers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Panthersedge mapTexans
  • -0.132EPA / play-0.134
  • 41.2%Success rate37.6%
  • -0.158EPA / dropback-0.086
  • -0.089EPA / rush-0.213
  • 7.3%Explosive rate6.1%
  • -7.50CPOE-1.54
  • 36.1%Third-down rate38.7%
  • 53.0%Red-zone TD rate51.0%
  • 1.43Points / drive1.50
  • 2.6%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CAR lead 5–2 since 1999

CAR have won 5 straight. Meetings average 35.4 points. HOU are 2-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W8HOU @ CAR13–15CAR
2019 · W4CAR @ HOU16–10CAR
2015 · W2HOU @ CAR17–24CAR
2011 · W15CAR @ HOU28–13CAR
2007 · W2HOU @ CAR34–21HOU
2003 · W9CAR @ HOU10–14HOU

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCAR–HOU
CARQ1 15:0037Punt0–0
HOUQ1 14:0234Punt0–0
CARQ1 12:361088Touchdown7–0
HOUQ1 6:36627Punt7–0
CARQ1 3:301581Turnover on downs7–0
HOUQ2 10:47911Punt7–0
CARQ2 5:4736Punt7–0
HOUQ2 4:0032Punt7–0
CARQ2 2:0831Punt7–0
HOUQ2 1:37664Touchdown7–6
CARQ2 0:2524End of half7–6
HOUQ3 15:001225Punt7–6
CARQ3 10:37976Touchdown14–6
HOUQ3 6:203-5Punt14–6
CARQ3 4:151160Field goal17–6
HOUQ4 12:44740Field goal17–9
CARQ4 9:091275Touchdown24–9
HOUQ4 4:07525Turnover on downs24–9
CARQ4 2:31212End of half24–9

Box score

Individual performances

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Sam Darnold23/3430400

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chuba Hubbard11524.70
Christian McCaffrey7314.40
Royce Freeman5173.40
Sam Darnold8111.42
Tommy Tremble177.01
DJ Moore1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DJ Moore8121260
Terrace Marshall Jr.45480
Tommy Tremble11300
Chuba Hubbard35270
Alex Erickson11250
Dan Arnold24230
Christian McCaffrey2290
Robbie Chosen1280
Royce Freeman1180

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Davis Mills19/2816810

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Mark Ingram6213.50
David Johnson2115.50
Brandin Cooks155.00
Phillip Lindsay750.70
Davis Mills100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brandin Cooks9111120
Jordan Akins45320
Anthony Miller46201
Rex Burkhead1150
Chris Conley0100
Mark Ingram11-10

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -83.9%2.6%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%

Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Panthers.

Half-point at risk

1.69%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.5%

Expected total

42.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.06
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.76