Closing spread
CAR -8
Total
43
Model margin
+2.8est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
1.7%est.
Win probability
- Texans
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.132EPA / play-0.134
- 41.2%Success rate37.6%
- -0.158EPA / dropback-0.086
- -0.089EPA / rush-0.213
- 7.3%Explosive rate6.1%
- -7.50CPOE-1.54
- 36.1%Third-down rate38.7%
- 53.0%Red-zone TD rate51.0%
- 1.43Points / drive1.50
- 2.6%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CAR lead 5–2 since 1999
CAR have won 5 straight. Meetings average 35.4 points. HOU are 2-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Darnold | 23/34 | 304 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chuba Hubbard | 11 | 52 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 7 | 31 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Royce Freeman | 5 | 17 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Sam Darnold | 8 | 11 | 1.4 | 2 |
| Tommy Tremble | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 1 |
| DJ Moore | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DJ Moore | 8 | 12 | 126 | 0 |
| Terrace Marshall Jr. | 4 | 5 | 48 | 0 |
| Tommy Tremble | 1 | 1 | 30 | 0 |
| Chuba Hubbard | 3 | 5 | 27 | 0 |
| Alex Erickson | 1 | 1 | 25 | 0 |
| Dan Arnold | 2 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Robbie Chosen | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Royce Freeman | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davis Mills | 19/28 | 168 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Ingram | 6 | 21 | 3.5 | 0 |
| David Johnson | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Brandin Cooks | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Phillip Lindsay | 7 | 5 | 0.7 | 0 |
| Davis Mills | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandin Cooks | 9 | 11 | 112 | 0 |
| Jordan Akins | 4 | 5 | 32 | 0 |
| Anthony Miller | 4 | 6 | 20 | 1 |
| Rex Burkhead | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Chris Conley | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Mark Ingram | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
1.69%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.5%
Expected total
42.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.06
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.76