Closing spread
CAR -6.5
Total
38
Model margin
+6.0est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Panthers
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.015EPA / play-0.088
- 45.4%Success rate38.9%
- +0.012EPA / dropback-0.070
- -0.052EPA / rush-0.111
- 7.5%Explosive rate7.7%
- +3.67CPOE-5.47
- 44.5%Third-down rate36.1%
- 65.4%Red-zone TD rate53.0%
- 1.85Points / drive1.27
- 3.7%Turnover rate2.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CAR lead 5–2 since 1999
CAR have won 5 straight. Meetings average 35.4 points. CAR are 5-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Schaub | 20/28 | 227 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahman Green | 15 | 71 | 4.7 | 1 |
| Ron Dayne | 18 | 44 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Matt Schaub | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Delhomme | 27/41 | 307 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAngelo Williams | 8 | 31 | 3.9 | 0 |
| DeShaun Foster | 9 | 22 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Jake Delhomme | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff King | 4 | 1 | 39 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
4.98%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
65.0%
Expected total
44.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.45
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+3.92
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.04