Closing spread
CAR -6.5
Total
38
Model margin
+6.0est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Panthers
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.015EPA / play-0.088
- 45.4%Success rate38.9%
- +0.012EPA / dropback-0.070
- -0.052EPA / rush-0.111
- 7.5%Explosive rate7.7%
- +3.67CPOE-5.47
- 44.5%Third-down rate36.1%
- 65.4%Red-zone TD rate53.0%
- 1.85Points / drive1.27
- 3.7%Turnover rate2.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CAR lead 5–2 since 1999
CAR have won 5 straight. Meetings average 35.4 points. CAR are 5-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | HOU–CAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU | Q1 15:00 | 7 | 25 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CAR | Q1 11:09 | 9 | 69 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| HOU | Q1 6:38 | 2 | 12 | Turnover | 0–7 |
| CAR | Q1 5:45 | 2 | 13 | Touchdown | 0–14 |
| HOU | Q1 5:04 | 3 | 65 | Touchdown | 7–14 |
| CAR | Q1 3:48 | 4 | 13 | Punt | 7–14 |
| HOU | Q1 1:06 | 16 | 80 | Touchdown | 14–14 |
| CAR | Q2 8:27 | 3 | -6 | Punt | 14–14 |
| HOU | Q2 7:11 | 9 | 51 | Field goal | 17–14 |
| CAR | Q2 2:17 | 6 | 17 | Punt | 17–14 |
| HOU | Q2 0:23 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 17–14 |
| CAR | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 17–14 |
| HOU | Q3 14:01 | 5 | 56 | Touchdown | 30–14 |
| CAR | Q3 11:28 | 0 | 0 | Touchdown | 31–14 |
| CAR | Q3 11:16 | 9 | 35 | Punt | 31–14 |
| HOU | Q3 5:37 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 31–14 |
| CAR | Q3 4:15 | 3 | 10 | Turnover | 31–14 |
| HOU | Q3 3:27 | 5 | 11 | Punt | 31–14 |
| CAR | Q3 1:06 | 4 | 21 | Turnover | 31–14 |
| HOU | Q4 14:51 | 8 | 30 | Field goal | 34–14 |
| CAR | Q4 9:07 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 34–14 |
| HOU | Q4 7:53 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 34–14 |
| CAR | Q4 5:49 | 3 | 99 | Touchdown | 34–21 |
| HOU | Q4 4:26 | 3 | 11 | Punt | 34–21 |
| CAR | Q4 2:38 | 12 | 66 | End of half | 34–21 |
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Schaub | 20/28 | 227 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahman Green | 15 | 71 | 4.7 | 1 |
| Ron Dayne | 18 | 44 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Matt Schaub | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Delhomme | 27/41 | 307 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAngelo Williams | 8 | 31 | 3.9 | 0 |
| DeShaun Foster | 9 | 22 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Jake Delhomme | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff King | 4 | 1 | 39 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
4.98%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
65.0%
Expected total
44.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.45
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+3.92
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.04