2011 · Week 15

Final

Panthers

Carolina

QB Cam Newton

28·13

Texans

Houston

QB T.J. Yates

Reliant Stadium · closed · grass

Closing spread

HOU -4.5

Total

45

Model margin

+0.1est.

HOU perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Panthers

Texans

Win probability

  • Texans
  • Panthers

How each play moved the game.

Texans winsPanthers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Panthersedge mapTexans
  • +0.102EPA / play+0.024
  • 44.8%Success rate44.6%
  • +0.093EPA / dropback+0.116
  • +0.115EPA / rush-0.066
  • 12.3%Explosive rate11.9%
  • -0.04CPOE-0.14
  • 38.7%Third-down rate41.5%
  • 64.4%Red-zone TD rate56.8%
  • 2.08Points / drive2.04
  • 2.2%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CAR lead 5–2 since 1999

CAR have won 5 straight. Meetings average 35.4 points. HOU are 2-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W8HOU @ CAR13–15CAR
2021 · W3CAR @ HOU24–9CAR
2019 · W4CAR @ HOU16–10CAR
2015 · W2HOU @ CAR17–24CAR
2007 · W2HOU @ CAR34–21HOU
2003 · W9CAR @ HOU10–14HOU

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCAR–HOU
HOUQ1 15:0026Turnover0–0
CARQ1 14:16426Touchdown7–0
HOUQ1 12:07739Punt7–0
CARQ1 7:4133Punt7–0
HOUQ1 5:25527Missed field goal7–0
CARQ1 2:121056Touchdown14–0
HOUQ2 12:1933Punt14–0
CARQ2 11:2337Punt14–0
HOUQ2 10:16945Turnover14–0
CARQ2 6:03953Touchdown21–0
HOUQ2 0:5535End of half21–0
CARQ3 15:0033Punt21–0
HOUQ3 12:54528Field goal21–3
CARQ3 11:07720Punt21–3
HOUQ3 7:591385Field goal21–6
CARQ3 2:5330Punt21–6
HOUQ3 2:25973Touchdown21–13
CARQ4 13:48780Touchdown28–13
HOUQ4 9:54547Turnover28–13
CARQ4 7:251269End of half28–13

Box score

Individual performances

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Cam Newton13/2314920
Armanti Edwards1/11100

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
DeAngelo Williams15614.11
Cam Newton7557.90
Jonathan Stewart11433.90
Richie Brockel177.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Steve Smith57821
Jeremy Shockey24351
Legedu Naanee22160
Greg Olsen22150
Jonathan Stewart2380
Richie Brockel1140
Brandon LaFell0500

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
T.J. Yates19/3021202

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Arian Foster161096.81
Ben Tate7263.70
T.J. Yates2157.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Arian Foster56580
Owen Daniels25290
Kevin Walter24260
Jacoby Jones12240
Bryant Johnson24230
Joel Dreessen24190
Ben Tate1140

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +4.52.7%4.4%2.9%7.3%7.4%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Panthers.

Half-point at risk

1.86%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

49.3%

Expected total

45.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.61
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-4.02
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.08