Closing spread
HOU -4.5
Total
45
Model margin
+0.1est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Texans
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.102EPA / play+0.024
- 44.8%Success rate44.6%
- +0.093EPA / dropback+0.116
- +0.115EPA / rush-0.066
- 12.3%Explosive rate11.9%
- -0.04CPOE-0.14
- 38.7%Third-down rate41.5%
- 64.4%Red-zone TD rate56.8%
- 2.08Points / drive2.04
- 2.2%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CAR lead 5–2 since 1999
CAR have won 5 straight. Meetings average 35.4 points. HOU are 2-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 13/23 | 149 | 2 | 0 |
| Armanti Edwards | 1/1 | 11 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAngelo Williams | 15 | 61 | 4.1 | 1 |
| Cam Newton | 7 | 55 | 7.9 | 0 |
| Jonathan Stewart | 11 | 43 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Richie Brockel | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Smith | 5 | 7 | 82 | 1 |
| Jeremy Shockey | 2 | 4 | 35 | 1 |
| Legedu Naanee | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Greg Olsen | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Jonathan Stewart | 2 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Richie Brockel | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Brandon LaFell | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.J. Yates | 19/30 | 212 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arian Foster | 16 | 109 | 6.8 | 1 |
| Ben Tate | 7 | 26 | 3.7 | 0 |
| T.J. Yates | 2 | 15 | 7.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arian Foster | 5 | 6 | 58 | 0 |
| Owen Daniels | 2 | 5 | 29 | 0 |
| Kevin Walter | 2 | 4 | 26 | 0 |
| Jacoby Jones | 1 | 2 | 24 | 0 |
| Bryant Johnson | 2 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| Joel Dreessen | 2 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
| Ben Tate | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
1.86%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.3%
Expected total
45.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.61
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-4.02
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.08