2015 · Week 3

Final

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Jameis Winston

9·19

Texans

Houston

QB Ryan Mallett

NRG Stadium · closed · fieldturf

Closing spread

HOU -6

Total

41

Model margin

+4.7est.

HOU perspective

Push chance

3.2%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Buccaneers

Texans

Win probability

  • Texans
  • Buccaneers

How each play moved the game.

Texans winsBuccaneers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Buccaneersedge mapTexans
  • +0.008EPA / play-0.055
  • 44.4%Success rate40.4%
  • +0.106EPA / dropback+0.022
  • -0.141EPA / rush-0.172
  • 9.6%Explosive rate7.4%
  • -0.02CPOE-4.17
  • 41.4%Third-down rate39.6%
  • 57.1%Red-zone TD rate62.4%
  • 1.77Points / drive1.50
  • 2.4%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

HOU lead 5–2 since 1999

Meetings average 41.9 points. HOU are 3-3-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W2TB @ HOU20–19TB
2023 · W9TB @ HOU37–39HOU
2019 · W16HOU @ TB23–20HOU
2011 · W10HOU @ TB37–9HOU
2007 · W14TB @ HOU14–28HOU
2003 · W15HOU @ TB3–16TB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTB–HOU
HOUQ1 15:00618Punt0–0
TBQ1 12:28729Punt0–0
HOUQ1 8:531064Touchdown0–7
TBQ1 4:58424Punt0–7
HOUQ1 3:011029Punt0–7
TBQ2 14:15540Field goal3–7
HOUQ2 11:151040Punt3–7
TBQ2 5:513-2Punt3–7
HOUQ2 4:4810Turnover3–7
TBQ2 4:41336Touchdown9–7
HOUQ2 3:51858Missed field goal9–7
TBQ2 1:31621Punt9–7
HOUQ2 0:4738End of half9–7
TBQ3 15:00421Turnover9–7
HOUQ3 13:53419Field goal9–10
TBQ3 12:3766Punt9–10
HOUQ3 10:0731Punt9–10
TBQ3 9:14421Missed field goal9–10
HOUQ3 7:17518Punt9–10
TBQ3 4:2736Punt9–10
HOUQ3 3:23940Punt9–10
TBQ4 14:49870Missed field goal9–10
HOUQ4 10:56562Touchdown9–16
TBQ4 9:1435Punt9–16
HOUQ4 8:041557Field goal9–19
TBQ4 1:12441Missed field goal9–19
HOUQ4 0:1900End of half9–19

Box score

Individual performances

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jameis Winston17/3626111

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Doug Martin14463.30
Charles Sims6111.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Evans7171010
Louis Murphy36610
Charles Sims22411
Vincent Jackson24400
Brandon Myers34180
Russell Shepard0100

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Mallett24/3922811

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alfred Blue311394.51
Jonathan Grimes6193.20
Chris Polk551.00
Ryan Mallett1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeAndre Hopkins8141011
Cecil Shorts69580
Nate Washington49420
Jonathan Grimes44190
Garrett Graham1190
Chandler Worthy11-10

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +63.5%6.5%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%3.0%

Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Buccaneers.

Half-point at risk

3.19%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

61.7%

Expected total

43.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.67
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.42
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.74