2015 · Week 3
Final
NRG Stadium · closed · fieldturf
Closing spread
HOU -6
Total
41
Model margin
+4.7est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
3.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Texans
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.008EPA / play-0.055
- 44.4%Success rate40.4%
- +0.106EPA / dropback+0.022
- -0.141EPA / rush-0.172
- 9.6%Explosive rate7.4%
- -0.02CPOE-4.17
- 41.4%Third-down rate39.6%
- 57.1%Red-zone TD rate62.4%
- 1.77Points / drive1.50
- 2.4%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
HOU lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 41.9 points. HOU are 3-3-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jameis Winston | 17/36 | 261 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doug Martin | 14 | 46 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Charles Sims | 6 | 11 | 1.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Evans | 7 | 17 | 101 | 0 |
| Louis Murphy | 3 | 6 | 61 | 0 |
| Charles Sims | 2 | 2 | 41 | 1 |
| Vincent Jackson | 2 | 4 | 40 | 0 |
| Brandon Myers | 3 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Russell Shepard | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Mallett | 24/39 | 228 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alfred Blue | 31 | 139 | 4.5 | 1 |
| Jonathan Grimes | 6 | 19 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Chris Polk | 5 | 5 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Ryan Mallett | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAndre Hopkins | 8 | 14 | 101 | 1 |
| Cecil Shorts | 6 | 9 | 58 | 0 |
| Nate Washington | 4 | 9 | 42 | 0 |
| Jonathan Grimes | 4 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
| Garrett Graham | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Chandler Worthy | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
3.19%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.7%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.67
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-0.42
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.74