2023 · Week 9
Final
NRG Stadium · closed · astroturf
Closing spread
HOU -2.5
Total
39.5
Model margin
+1.2est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Texans
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.008EPA / play-0.023
- 40.5%Success rate41.4%
- +0.110EPA / dropback+0.063
- -0.166EPA / rush-0.164
- 8.6%Explosive rate9.8%
- +0.25CPOE-1.53
- 42.2%Third-down rate37.7%
- 55.7%Red-zone TD rate58.4%
- 1.86Points / drive1.91
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
HOU lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 41.9 points. HOU are 3-3-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 21/30 | 265 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rachaad White | 20 | 73 | 3.6 | 2 |
| Ke'Shawn Vaughn | 4 | 9 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Baker Mayfield | 4 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Chase Edmonds | 3 | -5 | -1.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Evans | 4 | 5 | 87 | 0 |
| Cade Otton | 6 | 9 | 70 | 2 |
| Trey Palmer | 3 | 4 | 51 | 0 |
| Rachaad White | 4 | 4 | 46 | 0 |
| Chris Godwin Jr. | 2 | 6 | 16 | 0 |
| Chase Edmonds | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| Ke'Shawn Vaughn | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Stroud | 30/42 | 470 | 5 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin Singletary | 13 | 26 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Xavier Hutchinson | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Mike Boone | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Tank Dell | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Brown | 6 | 6 | 153 | 1 |
| Dalton Schultz | 10 | 11 | 130 | 1 |
| Tank Dell | 6 | 11 | 114 | 2 |
| Nico Collins | 3 | 5 | 54 | 1 |
| John Metchie III | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Devin Singletary | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
7.46%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.4%
Expected total
43.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.24
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+1.23