2023 · Week 9

Final

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Baker Mayfield

37·39

Texans

Houston

QB C.J. Stroud

NRG Stadium · closed · astroturf

Closing spread

HOU -2.5

Total

39.5

Model margin

+1.2est.

HOU perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Buccaneers

Texans

Win probability

  • Texans
  • Buccaneers

How each play moved the game.

Texans winsBuccaneers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Buccaneersedge mapTexans
  • +0.008EPA / play-0.023
  • 40.5%Success rate41.4%
  • +0.110EPA / dropback+0.063
  • -0.166EPA / rush-0.164
  • 8.6%Explosive rate9.8%
  • +0.25CPOE-1.53
  • 42.2%Third-down rate37.7%
  • 55.7%Red-zone TD rate58.4%
  • 1.86Points / drive1.91
  • 1.7%Turnover rate1.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

HOU lead 5–2 since 1999

Meetings average 41.9 points. HOU are 3-3-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W2TB @ HOU20–19TB
2019 · W16HOU @ TB23–20HOU
2015 · W3TB @ HOU9–19HOU
2011 · W10HOU @ TB37–9HOU
2007 · W14TB @ HOU14–28HOU
2003 · W15HOU @ TB3–16TB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTB–HOU
HOUQ1 15:0039Turnover0–0
TBQ1 14:38425Field goal3–0
HOUQ1 12:56760Touchdown3–7
TBQ1 9:101471Touchdown10–7
HOUQ1 2:1331Punt10–7
TBQ1 1:07412Punt10–7
HOUQ2 14:1130Punt10–7
TBQ2 12:03640Touchdown17–7
HOUQ2 9:05943Field goal17–10
TBQ2 5:1736Punt17–10
HOUQ2 3:00919End of half17–10
TBQ3 15:00627Field goal20–10
HOUQ3 12:38175Touchdown20–16
TBQ3 12:2061Field goal23–16
HOUQ3 9:23789Touchdown23–22
TBQ3 5:593-9Punt23–22
HOUQ3 3:37952Touchdown23–30
TBQ4 14:11675Touchdown30–30
HOUQ4 11:43669Field goal30–33
TBQ4 8:4533Punt30–33
HOUQ4 7:1154Punt30–33
TBQ4 4:271066Touchdown37–33
HOUQ4 0:46575Touchdown37–39
TBQ4 0:06115Turnover37–39

Box score

Individual performances

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Baker Mayfield21/3026520

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rachaad White20733.62
Ke'Shawn Vaughn492.30
Baker Mayfield441.00
Chase Edmonds3-5-1.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Evans45870
Cade Otton69702
Trey Palmer34510
Rachaad White44460
Chris Godwin Jr.26160
Chase Edmonds11-10
Ke'Shawn Vaughn11-10

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
C.J. Stroud30/4247050

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Devin Singletary13262.00
Xavier Hutchinson11212.00
Mike Boone133.00
Tank Dell221.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Noah Brown661531
Dalton Schultz10111301
Tank Dell6111142
Nico Collins35541
John Metchie III11140
Devin Singletary2200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.54.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Buccaneers.

Half-point at risk

7.46%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.4%

Expected total

43.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.24
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin+1.23