2025 · Week 2
Final
NRG Stadium · closed · astroturf
Closing spread
HOU -2.5
Total
42.5
Model margin
+3.4est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Texans
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.006EPA / play-0.008
- 43.3%Success rate41.7%
- +0.064EPA / dropback+0.083
- -0.087EPA / rush-0.149
- 8.4%Explosive rate7.2%
- -2.55CPOE-1.68
- 41.0%Third-down rate37.4%
- 61.0%Red-zone TD rate48.6%
- 1.89Points / drive2.05
- 1.4%Turnover rate1.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
HOU lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 41.9 points. HOU are 3-3-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 25/38 | 215 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bucky Irving | 17 | 71 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Rachaad White | 10 | 65 | 6.5 | 1 |
| Baker Mayfield | 3 | 33 | 11.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Evans | 5 | 11 | 56 | 0 |
| Bucky Irving | 6 | 6 | 50 | 0 |
| Sterling Shepard | 4 | 4 | 34 | 0 |
| Emeka Egbuka | 4 | 7 | 29 | 1 |
| Cade Otton | 3 | 4 | 25 | 0 |
| Ryan Miller | 1 | 1 | 20 | 1 |
| Rachaad White | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Payne Durham | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Stroud | 13/24 | 207 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Chubb | 12 | 43 | 3.6 | 1 |
| C.J. Stroud | 4 | 27 | 6.8 | 0 |
| Woody Marks | 3 | 14 | 4.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nico Collins | 3 | 9 | 52 | 1 |
| Woody Marks | 1 | 1 | 37 | 0 |
| Dalton Schultz | 3 | 4 | 29 | 0 |
| Nick Chubb | 2 | 2 | 29 | 0 |
| Xavier Hutchinson | 2 | 3 | 29 | 0 |
| Jayden Higgins | 1 | 1 | 28 | 0 |
| Justin Watson | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Harrison Bryant | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.1%
Expected total
43.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.66
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.37