2003 · Week 15

Final

Texans

Houston

QB Dave Ragone

3·16

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Brad Johnson

Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 67°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

TB -11.5

Total

36

Model margin

+6.3est.

TB perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Buccaneers
  • Texans

How each play moved the game.

Buccaneers winsTexans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Texansedge mapBuccaneers
  • -0.099EPA / play-0.043
  • 38.7%Success rate41.6%
  • -0.096EPA / dropback+0.014
  • -0.102EPA / rush-0.134
  • 9.0%Explosive rate7.3%
  • 30.8%Third-down rate35.7%
  • 65.8%Red-zone TD rate68.3%
  • 1.15Points / drive1.38
  • 2.8%Turnover rate2.8%
  • +0.041EPA / play allowed-0.116

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

HOU lead 5–2 since 1999

Meetings average 41.9 points. TB are 3-3-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W2TB @ HOU20–19TB
2023 · W9TB @ HOU37–39HOU
2019 · W16HOU @ TB23–20HOU
2015 · W3TB @ HOU9–19HOU
2011 · W10HOU @ TB37–9HOU
2007 · W14TB @ HOU14–28HOU

Box score

Individual performances

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Dave Ragone9/176400

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Domanick Williams16563.50
Tony Hollings294.50
Dave Ragone100.00

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brad Johnson17/2823700

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Thomas Jones341343.91
Aaron Stecker5173.40
Charles Lee166.00
Michael Pittman133.00
Brad Johnson111.00

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +11.56.1%7.3%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.2%

Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Texans.

Half-point at risk

1.35%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

65.6%

Expected total

42.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.87
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.86
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+6.29