2003 · Week 15
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 67°F · wind 7mph
Closing spread
TB -11.5
Total
36
Model margin
+6.3est.
TB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.099EPA / play-0.043
- 38.7%Success rate41.6%
- -0.096EPA / dropback+0.014
- -0.102EPA / rush-0.134
- 9.0%Explosive rate7.3%
- 30.8%Third-down rate35.7%
- 65.8%Red-zone TD rate68.3%
- 1.15Points / drive1.38
- 2.8%Turnover rate2.8%
- +0.041EPA / play allowed-0.116
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
HOU lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 41.9 points. TB are 3-3-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | HOU–TB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU | Q1 15:00 | 6 | 15 | Punt | 0–0 |
| TB | Q1 11:34 | 8 | 53 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| HOU | Q1 7:26 | 3 | -3 | Punt | 0–7 |
| TB | Q1 5:24 | 8 | 31 | Turnover on downs | 0–7 |
| HOU | Q1 1:48 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 0–7 |
| TB | Q2 15:00 | 8 | 44 | Field goal | 0–10 |
| HOU | Q2 10:13 | 6 | 22 | Punt | 0–10 |
| TB | Q2 7:33 | 15 | 82 | Field goal | 0–13 |
| HOU | Q2 0:33 | 4 | 11 | End of half | 0–13 |
| TB | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–13 |
| HOU | Q3 12:34 | 8 | 51 | Field goal | 3–13 |
| TB | Q3 9:01 | 5 | 72 | Field goal | 3–16 |
| HOU | Q3 7:03 | 3 | -9 | Punt | 3–16 |
| TB | Q3 5:17 | 10 | 38 | Missed field goal | 3–16 |
| HOU | Q3 0:09 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 3–16 |
| TB | Q4 13:31 | 4 | 21 | Punt | 3–16 |
| HOU | Q4 11:10 | 6 | 14 | Punt | 3–16 |
| TB | Q4 7:10 | 13 | 49 | End of half | 3–16 |
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dave Ragone | 9/17 | 64 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Domanick Williams | 16 | 56 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Tony Hollings | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Dave Ragone | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Johnson | 17/28 | 237 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Jones | 34 | 134 | 3.9 | 1 |
| Aaron Stecker | 5 | 17 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Charles Lee | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Michael Pittman | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Brad Johnson | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
1.35%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
65.6%
Expected total
42.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.87
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+0.86
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.29