2007 · Week 14
Final
Reliant Stadium · closed · grass
Closing spread
TB -3
Total
39
Model margin
+4.8est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
6.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Texans
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.004EPA / play-0.015
- 41.9%Success rate45.4%
- +0.063EPA / dropback+0.012
- -0.100EPA / rush-0.052
- 8.8%Explosive rate7.5%
- +2.62CPOE+3.67
- 39.3%Third-down rate44.5%
- 53.0%Red-zone TD rate65.4%
- 1.64Points / drive1.85
- 1.8%Turnover rate3.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
HOU lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 41.9 points. HOU are 3-3-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luke McCown | 25/38 | 266 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Earnest Graham | 15 | 61 | 4.1 | 2 |
| Luke McCown | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sage Rosenfels | 27/36 | 209 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darius Walker | 16 | 46 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Ron Dayne | 7 | 17 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Adimchinobe Echemandu | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Sage Rosenfels | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
6.47%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.9%
Expected total
44.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.20
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+5.47
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.83