2007 · Week 14
Final
Reliant Stadium · closed · grass
Closing spread
TB -3
Total
39
Model margin
+4.8est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
6.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Texans
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.004EPA / play-0.015
- 41.9%Success rate45.4%
- +0.063EPA / dropback+0.012
- -0.100EPA / rush-0.052
- 8.8%Explosive rate7.5%
- +2.62CPOE+3.67
- 39.3%Third-down rate44.5%
- 53.0%Red-zone TD rate65.4%
- 1.64Points / drive1.85
- 1.8%Turnover rate3.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
HOU lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 41.9 points. HOU are 3-3-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | TB–HOU |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB | Q1 15:00 | 9 | 44 | Turnover on downs | 0–0 |
| HOU | Q1 10:18 | 12 | 66 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| TB | Q1 3:59 | 3 | 13 | Punt | 0–7 |
| HOU | Q1 1:19 | 7 | 11 | Turnover | 0–7 |
| TB | Q2 12:56 | 5 | 25 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| HOU | Q2 10:57 | 6 | 27 | Punt | 7–7 |
| TB | Q2 7:30 | 3 | 13 | Turnover | 7–7 |
| HOU | Q2 6:05 | 3 | 23 | Touchdown | 7–14 |
| TB | Q2 4:38 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 7–14 |
| HOU | Q2 3:28 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 7–14 |
| TB | Q2 1:51 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 7–14 |
| HOU | Q2 0:51 | 3 | 3 | End of half | 7–20 |
| HOU | Q3 15:00 | 0 | 0 | Touchdown | 7–21 |
| TB | Q3 14:46 | 4 | 69 | Touchdown | 14–21 |
| HOU | Q3 12:38 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 14–21 |
| TB | Q3 11:02 | 4 | 25 | Punt | 14–21 |
| HOU | Q3 9:40 | 13 | 60 | Turnover | 14–21 |
| TB | Q3 1:47 | 3 | 4 | Turnover | 14–21 |
| HOU | Q3 1:01 | 4 | 17 | Touchdown | 14–28 |
| TB | Q4 14:56 | 7 | 37 | Punt | 14–28 |
| HOU | Q4 11:05 | 9 | 28 | Punt | 14–28 |
| TB | Q4 4:50 | 3 | -6 | Punt | 14–28 |
| HOU | Q4 3:58 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 14–28 |
| TB | Q4 3:29 | 12 | 73 | Turnover on downs | 14–28 |
| HOU | Q4 0:30 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 14–28 |
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luke McCown | 25/38 | 266 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Earnest Graham | 15 | 61 | 4.1 | 2 |
| Luke McCown | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sage Rosenfels | 27/36 | 209 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darius Walker | 16 | 46 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Ron Dayne | 7 | 17 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Adimchinobe Echemandu | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Sage Rosenfels | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
6.47%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.9%
Expected total
44.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.20
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+5.47
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.83