2011 · Week 10

Final

Texans

Houston

QB Matt Schaub

37·9

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Josh Freeman

Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 77°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

HOU -3.5

Total

45.5

Model margin

-2.6est.

TB perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Texans

Buccaneers

Win probability

  • Buccaneers
  • Texans

How each play moved the game.

Buccaneers winsTexans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Texansedge mapBuccaneers
  • +0.024EPA / play-0.107
  • 44.6%Success rate43.0%
  • +0.116EPA / dropback-0.081
  • -0.066EPA / rush-0.164
  • 11.9%Explosive rate6.3%
  • -0.14CPOE-1.20
  • 41.5%Third-down rate37.0%
  • 56.8%Red-zone TD rate58.6%
  • 2.04Points / drive1.39
  • 1.9%Turnover rate3.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

HOU lead 5–2 since 1999

Meetings average 41.9 points. TB are 3-3-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W2TB @ HOU20–19TB
2023 · W9TB @ HOU37–39HOU
2019 · W16HOU @ TB23–20HOU
2015 · W3TB @ HOU9–19HOU
2007 · W14TB @ HOU14–28HOU
2003 · W15HOU @ TB3–16TB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultHOU–TB
HOUQ1 15:00180Touchdown6–0
TBQ1 14:48628Punt6–0
HOUQ1 11:531481Field goal9–0
TBQ1 4:29416Punt9–0
HOUQ1 3:02523Punt9–0
TBQ2 15:00644Punt9–0
HOUQ2 10:48385Touchdown16–0
TBQ2 8:5531Punt16–0
HOUQ2 7:473-2Punt16–0
TBQ2 5:371068Turnover on downs16–0
HOUQ2 1:3941Punt16–0
TBQ2 0:2829Field goal16–3
TBQ3 15:005-3Punt16–3
HOUQ3 12:14765Touchdown23–3
TBQ3 8:1064Turnover23–3
HOUQ3 5:17739Touchdown30–3
TBQ3 2:0310Turnover30–3
HOUQ3 1:463-5Missed field goal30–3
TBQ4 14:551061Touchdown30–9
HOUQ4 11:17410Punt30–9
TBQ4 8:2020Turnover30–9
HOUQ4 8:07427Touchdown37–9
TBQ4 5:3810Turnover37–9
HOUQ4 5:3346Turnover on downs37–9
TBQ4 3:0533Punt37–9
HOUQ4 2:11311End of half37–9

Box score

Individual performances

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Schaub11/1524220

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Arian Foster17844.91
Ben Tate13634.81
Derrick Ward11363.31
Jacoby Jones122.00
Matt Schaub111.00
Matt Leinart1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Arian Foster441021
Jacoby Jones23871
Owen Daniels33310
Derrick Mason12160
Kevin Walter1160
Bryant Johnson0100
Joel Dreessen0100

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Freeman15/3317013
Josh Johnson0/2000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LeGarrette Blount10343.40
Kregg Lumpkin4317.80
Josh Freeman3258.30
Josh Johnson100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Arrelious Benn26470
Mike Williams25430
Kellen Winslow36330
Kregg Lumpkin57300
Preston Parker24171
Sammie Stroughter0100
LeGarrette Blount1200
Dezmon Briscoe0200
Zack Pianalto0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -3.52.7%3.0%4.7%3.1%7.5%7.0%2.7%4.0%

Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Texans.

Half-point at risk

7.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

42.1%

Expected total

44.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-5.11
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-2.62