2011 · Week 10
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 77°F · wind 9mph
Closing spread
HOU -3.5
Total
45.5
Model margin
-2.6est.
TB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.024EPA / play-0.107
- 44.6%Success rate43.0%
- +0.116EPA / dropback-0.081
- -0.066EPA / rush-0.164
- 11.9%Explosive rate6.3%
- -0.14CPOE-1.20
- 41.5%Third-down rate37.0%
- 56.8%Red-zone TD rate58.6%
- 2.04Points / drive1.39
- 1.9%Turnover rate3.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
HOU lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 41.9 points. TB are 3-3-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Schaub | 11/15 | 242 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arian Foster | 17 | 84 | 4.9 | 1 |
| Ben Tate | 13 | 63 | 4.8 | 1 |
| Derrick Ward | 11 | 36 | 3.3 | 1 |
| Jacoby Jones | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Matt Schaub | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Matt Leinart | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arian Foster | 4 | 4 | 102 | 1 |
| Jacoby Jones | 2 | 3 | 87 | 1 |
| Owen Daniels | 3 | 3 | 31 | 0 |
| Derrick Mason | 1 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Kevin Walter | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Bryant Johnson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Joel Dreessen | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Freeman | 15/33 | 170 | 1 | 3 |
| Josh Johnson | 0/2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeGarrette Blount | 10 | 34 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Kregg Lumpkin | 4 | 31 | 7.8 | 0 |
| Josh Freeman | 3 | 25 | 8.3 | 0 |
| Josh Johnson | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arrelious Benn | 2 | 6 | 47 | 0 |
| Mike Williams | 2 | 5 | 43 | 0 |
| Kellen Winslow | 3 | 6 | 33 | 0 |
| Kregg Lumpkin | 5 | 7 | 30 | 0 |
| Preston Parker | 2 | 4 | 17 | 1 |
| Sammie Stroughter | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| LeGarrette Blount | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Dezmon Briscoe | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Zack Pianalto | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
42.1%
Expected total
44.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-5.11
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-2.62