2019 · Week 16
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 73°F · wind 11mph
Closing spread
HOU -3
Total
50
Model margin
+4.5est.
TB perspective
Push chance
6.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.057EPA / play+0.000
- 45.6%Success rate43.6%
- +0.132EPA / dropback+0.084
- -0.071EPA / rush-0.168
- 8.7%Explosive rate10.0%
- +1.12CPOE+0.42
- 43.7%Third-down rate42.2%
- 70.6%Red-zone TD rate71.0%
- 2.18Points / drive1.86
- 2.0%Turnover rate3.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
HOU lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 41.9 points. TB are 3-3-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deshaun Watson | 19/32 | 184 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deshaun Watson | 7 | 37 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Carlos Hyde | 17 | 27 | 1.6 | 1 |
| Duke Johnson | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenny Stills | 5 | 9 | 57 | 0 |
| DeAndre Carter | 2 | 2 | 44 | 0 |
| Darren Fells | 3 | 3 | 27 | 0 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 5 | 9 | 23 | 0 |
| Duke Johnson | 1 | 4 | 12 | 0 |
| Will Fuller | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Carlos Hyde | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Jordan Akins | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jameis Winston | 25/48 | 335 | 1 | 4 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ronald Jones | 14 | 77 | 5.5 | 1 |
| Jameis Winston | 2 | 16 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Peyton Barber | 5 | 13 | 2.6 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breshad Perriman | 7 | 12 | 102 | 0 |
| O.J. Howard | 3 | 7 | 46 | 0 |
| Justin Watson | 5 | 10 | 43 | 1 |
| Dare Ogunbowale | 3 | 5 | 34 | 0 |
| Ronald Jones | 3 | 4 | 32 | 0 |
| Ishmael Hyman | 1 | 3 | 31 | 0 |
| Codey McElroy | 1 | 1 | 30 | 0 |
| Cameron Brate | 2 | 5 | 17 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
6.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.1%
Expected total
45.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.78
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.52