2019 · Week 16

Final

Texans

Houston

QB Deshaun Watson

23·20

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Jameis Winston

Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 73°F · wind 11mph

Closing spread

HOU -3

Total

50

Model margin

+4.5est.

TB perspective

Push chance

6.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Texans

Buccaneers

Win probability

  • Buccaneers
  • Texans

How each play moved the game.

Buccaneers winsTexans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Texansedge mapBuccaneers
  • +0.057EPA / play+0.000
  • 45.6%Success rate43.6%
  • +0.132EPA / dropback+0.084
  • -0.071EPA / rush-0.168
  • 8.7%Explosive rate10.0%
  • +1.12CPOE+0.42
  • 43.7%Third-down rate42.2%
  • 70.6%Red-zone TD rate71.0%
  • 2.18Points / drive1.86
  • 2.0%Turnover rate3.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

HOU lead 5–2 since 1999

Meetings average 41.9 points. TB are 3-3-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W2TB @ HOU20–19TB
2023 · W9TB @ HOU37–39HOU
2015 · W3TB @ HOU9–19HOU
2011 · W10HOU @ TB37–9HOU
2007 · W14TB @ HOU14–28HOU
2003 · W15HOU @ TB3–16TB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultHOU–TB
TBQ1 15:0020Opp touchdown7–0
TBQ1 14:1234Turnover7–0
HOUQ1 13:0965Field goal10–0
TBQ1 11:29559Missed field goal10–0
HOUQ1 8:21510Punt10–0
TBQ1 4:38968Field goal10–3
HOUQ1 0:56413Turnover10–3
TBQ2 14:1510Turnover10–3
HOUQ2 14:0632Punt10–3
TBQ2 12:2417Turnover10–3
HOUQ2 12:16742Touchdown17–3
TBQ2 9:22423Punt17–3
HOUQ2 7:0839Punt17–3
TBQ2 5:13981Touchdown17–10
HOUQ2 1:5743Turnover17–10
TBQ2 0:42539Touchdown17–17
HOUQ2 0:1300End of half17–17
HOUQ3 15:001373Field goal20–17
TBQ3 9:301557Field goal20–20
HOUQ3 1:1341Punt20–20
TBQ4 14:23417Punt20–20
HOUQ4 12:011064Field goal23–20
TBQ4 7:11843Turnover on downs23–20
HOUQ4 3:3439Punt23–20
TBQ4 2:21528Turnover23–20
HOUQ4 1:273-1Punt23–20
TBQ4 0:2129End of half23–20

Box score

Individual performances

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Deshaun Watson19/3218401

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Deshaun Watson7375.30
Carlos Hyde17271.61
Duke Johnson242.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kenny Stills59570
DeAndre Carter22440
Darren Fells33270
DeAndre Hopkins59230
Duke Johnson14120
Will Fuller22110
Carlos Hyde11100
Jordan Akins0200

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jameis Winston25/4833514

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ronald Jones14775.51
Jameis Winston2168.00
Peyton Barber5132.60

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Breshad Perriman7121020
O.J. Howard37460
Justin Watson510431
Dare Ogunbowale35340
Ronald Jones34320
Ishmael Hyman13310
Codey McElroy11300
Cameron Brate25170

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -33.6%6.5%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%

Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Texans.

Half-point at risk

6.55%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

61.1%

Expected total

45.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.78
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.52