2015 · Week 12
Final
Lucas Oil Stadium · closed · fieldturf
Closing spread
IND -3
Total
46.5
Model margin
+2.2est.
IND perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Colts
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.008EPA / play-0.083
- 44.4%Success rate40.1%
- +0.106EPA / dropback-0.023
- -0.141EPA / rush-0.206
- 9.6%Explosive rate7.0%
- -0.02CPOE-4.10
- 41.4%Third-down rate40.5%
- 57.1%Red-zone TD rate59.4%
- 1.77Points / drive1.47
- 2.4%Turnover rate2.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 55.3 points. IND are 5-1-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jameis Winston | 20/36 | 245 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doug Martin | 14 | 97 | 6.9 | 0 |
| Jameis Winston | 3 | 27 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Charles Sims | 4 | 8 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vincent Jackson | 4 | 10 | 76 | 0 |
| Mike Evans | 5 | 10 | 64 | 0 |
| Cameron Brate | 5 | 6 | 53 | 1 |
| Charles Sims | 3 | 3 | 31 | 0 |
| Adam Humphries | 2 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Doug Martin | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| Luke Stocker | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Hasselbeck | 26/42 | 315 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 19 | 24 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Ahmad Bradshaw | 4 | 6 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donte Moncrief | 8 | 9 | 114 | 0 |
| T.Y. Hilton | 6 | 12 | 95 | 2 |
| Coby Fleener | 3 | 3 | 27 | 0 |
| Andre Johnson | 1 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Ahmad Bradshaw | 3 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| Dwayne Allen | 2 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
| Frank Gore | 2 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Jack Doyle | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
7.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.0%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.42
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+0.15
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.22