2015 · Week 12

Final

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Jameis Winston

12·25

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Matt Hasselbeck

Lucas Oil Stadium · closed · fieldturf

Closing spread

IND -3

Total

46.5

Model margin

+2.2est.

IND perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Buccaneers

Colts

Win probability

  • Colts
  • Buccaneers

How each play moved the game.

Colts winsBuccaneers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Buccaneersedge mapColts
  • +0.008EPA / play-0.083
  • 44.4%Success rate40.1%
  • +0.106EPA / dropback-0.023
  • -0.141EPA / rush-0.206
  • 9.6%Explosive rate7.0%
  • -0.02CPOE-4.10
  • 41.4%Third-down rate40.5%
  • 57.1%Red-zone TD rate59.4%
  • 1.77Points / drive1.47
  • 2.4%Turnover rate2.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 4–3 since 1999

Meetings average 55.3 points. IND are 5-1-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W12TB @ IND20–27IND
2021 · W12TB @ IND38–31TB
2019 · W14IND @ TB35–38TB
2011 · W4IND @ TB17–24TB
2007 · W5TB @ IND14–33IND
2003 · W5IND @ TB38–35IND

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTB–IND
INDQ1 15:001442Field goal0–3
TBQ1 8:131255Field goal3–3
INDQ1 2:501160Field goal3–6
TBQ2 12:441583Field goal6–6
INDQ2 5:3831Punt6–6
TBQ2 4:34686Touchdown12–6
INDQ2 1:54845End of half12–6
TBQ3 15:00410Punt12–6
INDQ3 13:05756Field goal12–9
TBQ3 10:013-8Punt12–9
INDQ3 8:27346Touchdown12–16
TBQ3 7:22844Missed field goal12–16
INDQ3 3:57615Field goal12–19
TBQ3 1:02412Punt12–19
INDQ4 13:231670Touchdown12–25
TBQ4 5:531038Turnover on downs12–25
INDQ4 3:4634Punt12–25
TBQ4 2:4030Turnover12–25
INDQ4 2:2000Punt12–25
TBQ4 0:26224End of half12–25

Box score

Individual performances

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jameis Winston20/3624511

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Doug Martin14976.90
Jameis Winston3279.00
Charles Sims482.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Vincent Jackson410760
Mike Evans510640
Cameron Brate56531
Charles Sims33310
Adam Humphries23200
Doug Martin1310
Luke Stocker0100

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Hasselbeck26/4231520

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Frank Gore19241.30
Ahmad Bradshaw461.50
Matt Hasselbeck3-3-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Donte Moncrief891140
T.Y. Hilton612952
Coby Fleener33270
Andre Johnson13220
Ahmad Bradshaw34200
Dwayne Allen24190
Frank Gore23130
Jack Doyle1150

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +34.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Buccaneers.

Half-point at risk

7.51%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.0%

Expected total

44.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.42
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.15
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.22