2011 · Week 4
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 80°F · wind 0mph
Closing spread
TB -10
Total
40
Model margin
+0.6est.
TB perspective
Push chance
2.8%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.129EPA / play-0.107
- 39.3%Success rate43.0%
- -0.096EPA / dropback-0.081
- -0.182EPA / rush-0.164
- 6.8%Explosive rate6.3%
- -4.66CPOE-1.20
- 34.4%Third-down rate37.0%
- 47.1%Red-zone TD rate58.6%
- 1.05Points / drive1.39
- 3.0%Turnover rate3.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 55.3 points. TB are 1-5-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Painter | 13/30 | 281 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joseph Addai | 11 | 41 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Delone Carter | 7 | 21 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pierre Garcon | 2 | 8 | 146 | 2 |
| Reggie Wayne | 4 | 8 | 59 | 0 |
| Dallas Clark | 3 | 4 | 46 | 0 |
| Austin Collie | 2 | 7 | 16 | 0 |
| Joseph Addai | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Brody Eldridge | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Freeman | 25/39 | 287 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeGarrette Blount | 25 | 127 | 5.1 | 1 |
| Josh Freeman | 6 | 27 | 4.5 | 1 |
| Earnest Graham | 2 | 24 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Josh Johnson | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Arrelious Benn | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Mike Williams | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Preston Parker | 5 | 7 | 70 | 1 |
| Mike Williams | 5 | 8 | 66 | 0 |
| Arrelious Benn | 1 | 1 | 43 | 0 |
| Kellen Winslow | 5 | 6 | 33 | 0 |
| Earnest Graham | 3 | 6 | 27 | 0 |
| Kregg Lumpkin | 3 | 3 | 25 | 0 |
| LeGarrette Blount | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Luke Stocker | 2 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
2.77%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.6%
Expected total
44.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.94
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.55