2011 · Week 4

Final

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Curtis Painter

17·24

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Josh Freeman

Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 80°F · wind 0mph

Closing spread

TB -10

Total

40

Model margin

+0.6est.

TB perspective

Push chance

2.8%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Colts

Buccaneers

Win probability

  • Buccaneers
  • Colts

How each play moved the game.

Buccaneers winsColts wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Coltsedge mapBuccaneers
  • -0.129EPA / play-0.107
  • 39.3%Success rate43.0%
  • -0.096EPA / dropback-0.081
  • -0.182EPA / rush-0.164
  • 6.8%Explosive rate6.3%
  • -4.66CPOE-1.20
  • 34.4%Third-down rate37.0%
  • 47.1%Red-zone TD rate58.6%
  • 1.05Points / drive1.39
  • 3.0%Turnover rate3.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 4–3 since 1999

Meetings average 55.3 points. TB are 1-5-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W12TB @ IND20–27IND
2021 · W12TB @ IND38–31TB
2019 · W14IND @ TB35–38TB
2015 · W12TB @ IND12–25IND
2007 · W5TB @ IND14–33IND
2003 · W5IND @ TB38–35IND

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultIND–TB
INDQ1 15:001048Field goal3–0
TBQ1 10:2634Punt3–0
INDQ1 8:59515Turnover3–0
TBQ1 7:1134Missed field goal3–0
INDQ1 5:47416Punt3–0
TBQ1 3:38947Punt3–0
INDQ2 14:1032Punt3–0
TBQ2 13:02524Punt3–0
INDQ2 10:14493Touchdown10–0
TBQ2 8:47990Touchdown10–7
INDQ2 3:5433Punt10–7
TBQ2 1:521066End of half10–7
TBQ3 15:001157Field goal10–10
INDQ3 9:43427Punt10–10
TBQ3 8:1433Punt16–10
INDQ3 7:22159Touchdown17–10
TBQ3 7:101365Touchdown17–17
INDQ3 0:141446Missed field goal17–17
TBQ4 11:38516Punt17–17
INDQ4 8:5334Punt17–17
TBQ4 6:47665Touchdown17–24
INDQ4 3:1535Punt17–24
TBQ4 2:46626End of half17–24

Box score

Individual performances

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Curtis Painter13/3028120

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Joseph Addai11413.70
Delone Carter7213.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Pierre Garcon281462
Reggie Wayne48590
Dallas Clark34460
Austin Collie27160
Joseph Addai1270
Brody Eldridge1170

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Freeman25/3928710

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LeGarrette Blount251275.11
Josh Freeman6274.51
Earnest Graham22412.00
Josh Johnson188.00
Arrelious Benn133.00
Mike Williams133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Preston Parker57701
Mike Williams58660
Arrelious Benn11430
Kellen Winslow56330
Earnest Graham36270
Kregg Lumpkin33250
LeGarrette Blount12140
Luke Stocker2490

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +107.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Colts.

Half-point at risk

2.77%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.6%

Expected total

44.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.94
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.55