2019 · Week 14
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 78°F · wind 9mph
Closing spread
TB -3
Total
46.5
Model margin
+2.7est.
TB perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.009EPA / play+0.000
- 44.5%Success rate43.6%
- -0.001EPA / dropback+0.084
- +0.022EPA / rush-0.168
- 8.5%Explosive rate10.0%
- -3.86CPOE+0.42
- 41.9%Third-down rate42.2%
- 68.0%Red-zone TD rate71.0%
- 1.94Points / drive1.86
- 1.8%Turnover rate3.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 55.3 points. TB are 1-5-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Brissett | 19/36 | 251 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marlon Mack | 13 | 38 | 2.9 | 1 |
| Jacoby Brissett | 4 | 26 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Nyheim Hines | 4 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
| Jordan Wilkins | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Johnson | 3 | 7 | 105 | 1 |
| Zach Pascal | 5 | 9 | 74 | 1 |
| Jack Doyle | 2 | 6 | 27 | 0 |
| Nyheim Hines | 4 | 5 | 24 | 0 |
| Parris Campbell | 3 | 5 | 12 | 0 |
| Mo Alie-Cox | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Ross Travis | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Chad Williams | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jameis Winston | 33/45 | 456 | 4 | 3 |
| Ryan Griffin | 2/4 | 18 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ronald Jones | 11 | 36 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Peyton Barber | 11 | 34 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Jameis Winston | 6 | 5 | 0.8 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Godwin Jr. | 7 | 9 | 91 | 0 |
| O.J. Howard | 4 | 5 | 73 | 0 |
| Breshad Perriman | 3 | 5 | 70 | 1 |
| Mike Evans | 1 | 2 | 61 | 1 |
| Justin Watson | 5 | 8 | 59 | 1 |
| Dare Ogunbowale | 5 | 5 | 48 | 0 |
| Cameron Brate | 4 | 4 | 30 | 1 |
| Ronald Jones | 4 | 5 | 23 | 0 |
| Peyton Barber | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.4%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.00
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.74