2019 · Week 14

Final

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Jacoby Brissett

35·38

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Jameis Winston

Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 78°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

TB -3

Total

46.5

Model margin

+2.7est.

TB perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Colts

Buccaneers

Win probability

  • Buccaneers
  • Colts

How each play moved the game.

Buccaneers winsColts wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Coltsedge mapBuccaneers
  • +0.009EPA / play+0.000
  • 44.5%Success rate43.6%
  • -0.001EPA / dropback+0.084
  • +0.022EPA / rush-0.168
  • 8.5%Explosive rate10.0%
  • -3.86CPOE+0.42
  • 41.9%Third-down rate42.2%
  • 68.0%Red-zone TD rate71.0%
  • 1.94Points / drive1.86
  • 1.8%Turnover rate3.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 4–3 since 1999

Meetings average 55.3 points. TB are 1-5-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W12TB @ IND20–27IND
2021 · W12TB @ IND38–31TB
2015 · W12TB @ IND12–25IND
2011 · W4IND @ TB17–24TB
2007 · W5TB @ IND14–33IND
2003 · W5IND @ TB38–35IND

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultIND–TB
TBQ1 15:00210Turnover0–0
INDQ1 14:18350Touchdown7–0
TBQ1 12:45618Turnover7–0
INDQ1 9:34711Field goal10–0
TBQ1 6:531075Touchdown10–7
INDQ1 1:4130Punt10–13
TBQ1 1:15161Touchdown10–14
INDQ1 1:063-1Punt10–14
TBQ2 14:42410Punt10–14
INDQ2 12:341047Touchdown17–14
TBQ2 7:42968Opp touchdown24–14
TBQ2 2:321175Touchdown24–21
INDQ2 0:38561Field goal27–21
INDQ3 15:00626Punt27–21
TBQ3 12:02622Punt27–21
INDQ3 9:33871Touchdown35–21
TBQ3 5:59575Touchdown35–28
INDQ3 3:1839Punt35–28
TBQ3 1:43955Field goal35–31
INDQ4 13:00514Turnover35–31
TBQ4 10:3321Turnover35–31
INDQ4 9:443-4Missed field goal35–31
TBQ4 8:13863Touchdown35–38
INDQ4 3:51625Turnover on downs35–38
TBQ4 1:45213End of half35–38

Box score

Individual performances

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jacoby Brissett19/3625120

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Marlon Mack13382.91
Jacoby Brissett4266.50
Nyheim Hines410.30
Jordan Wilkins111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marcus Johnson371051
Zach Pascal59741
Jack Doyle26270
Nyheim Hines45240
Parris Campbell35120
Mo Alie-Cox1180
Ross Travis1110
Chad Williams0100

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jameis Winston33/4545643
Ryan Griffin2/41800

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ronald Jones11363.30
Peyton Barber11343.10
Jameis Winston650.81

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Chris Godwin Jr.79910
O.J. Howard45730
Breshad Perriman35701
Mike Evans12611
Justin Watson58591
Dare Ogunbowale55480
Cameron Brate44301
Ronald Jones45230
Peyton Barber22190

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +33.9%2.6%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.0%2.7%

Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Colts.

Half-point at risk

7.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.4%

Expected total

44.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.00
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.74