2007 · Week 5

Final

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Jeff Garcia

14·33

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Peyton Manning

RCA Dome · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

IND -9

Total

44.5

Model margin

+3.2est.

IND perspective

Push chance

1.2%est.

Win probability

  • Colts
  • Buccaneers

How each play moved the game.

Colts winsBuccaneers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Buccaneersedge mapColts
  • -0.004EPA / play+0.139
  • 41.9%Success rate48.8%
  • +0.063EPA / dropback+0.222
  • -0.100EPA / rush+0.025
  • 8.8%Explosive rate9.7%
  • +2.62CPOE+1.87
  • 39.3%Third-down rate49.3%
  • 53.0%Red-zone TD rate60.0%
  • 1.64Points / drive2.49
  • 1.8%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 4–3 since 1999

Meetings average 55.3 points. IND are 5-1-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W12TB @ IND20–27IND
2021 · W12TB @ IND38–31TB
2019 · W14IND @ TB35–38TB
2015 · W12TB @ IND12–25IND
2011 · W4IND @ TB17–24TB
2003 · W5IND @ TB38–35IND

Box score

Individual performances

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jeff Garcia18/2314320
Bruce Gradkowski3/42201

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Earnest Graham6111.80
Jeff Garcia177.00
Michael Pittman5-1-0.20

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Peyton Manning29/3725321

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kenton Keith281214.32
Clifton Dawson8243.00
Reggie Wayne144.00
Peyton Manning2-2-1.00

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +96.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Buccaneers.

Half-point at risk

1.23%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.8%

Expected total

44.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.68
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.24