2007 · Week 5
Final
RCA Dome · dome · fieldturf
Closing spread
IND -9
Total
44.5
Model margin
+3.2est.
IND perspective
Push chance
1.2%est.
Win probability
- Colts
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.004EPA / play+0.139
- 41.9%Success rate48.8%
- +0.063EPA / dropback+0.222
- -0.100EPA / rush+0.025
- 8.8%Explosive rate9.7%
- +2.62CPOE+1.87
- 39.3%Third-down rate49.3%
- 53.0%Red-zone TD rate60.0%
- 1.64Points / drive2.49
- 1.8%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 55.3 points. IND are 5-1-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | TB–IND |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB | Q1 15:00 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 0–0 |
| IND | Q1 13:08 | 7 | 42 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| TB | Q1 10:19 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 0–7 |
| IND | Q1 8:02 | 15 | 68 | Touchdown | 0–13 |
| TB | Q2 14:53 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–13 |
| IND | Q2 12:39 | 3 | 0 | Turnover | 0–13 |
| TB | Q2 12:15 | 9 | 56 | Touchdown | 7–13 |
| IND | Q2 6:43 | 7 | 13 | Punt | 7–13 |
| TB | Q2 3:00 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 7–13 |
| IND | Q2 2:01 | 11 | 67 | Field goal | 7–16 |
| IND | Q3 15:00 | 13 | 77 | Touchdown | 7–23 |
| TB | Q3 7:23 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 7–23 |
| IND | Q3 5:42 | 11 | 68 | Touchdown | 7–30 |
| TB | Q4 14:57 | 12 | 81 | Touchdown | 14–30 |
| IND | Q4 9:21 | 10 | 67 | Field goal | 14–33 |
| TB | Q4 2:53 | 5 | 22 | Turnover | 14–33 |
| IND | Q4 1:19 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 14–33 |
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Garcia | 18/23 | 143 | 2 | 0 |
| Bruce Gradkowski | 3/4 | 22 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Earnest Graham | 6 | 11 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Jeff Garcia | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Michael Pittman | 5 | -1 | -0.2 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 29/37 | 253 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenton Keith | 28 | 121 | 4.3 | 2 |
| Clifton Dawson | 8 | 24 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Reggie Wayne | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Peyton Manning | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
1.23%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.8%
Expected total
44.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.68
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.24