2023 · Week 12

Final

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Baker Mayfield

20·27

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Gardner Minshew

Lucas Oil Stadium · closed · fieldturf

Closing spread

IND -2.5

Total

45

Model margin

+1.5est.

IND perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Buccaneers

Colts

Win probability

  • Colts
  • Buccaneers

How each play moved the game.

Colts winsBuccaneers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Buccaneersedge mapColts
  • +0.008EPA / play-0.025
  • 40.5%Success rate41.5%
  • +0.110EPA / dropback+0.030
  • -0.166EPA / rush-0.108
  • 8.6%Explosive rate8.6%
  • +0.25CPOE-3.92
  • 42.2%Third-down rate34.4%
  • 55.7%Red-zone TD rate57.1%
  • 1.86Points / drive1.78
  • 1.7%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 4–3 since 1999

Meetings average 55.3 points. IND are 5-1-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2021 · W12TB @ IND38–31TB
2019 · W14IND @ TB35–38TB
2015 · W12TB @ IND12–25IND
2011 · W4IND @ TB17–24TB
2007 · W5TB @ IND14–33IND
2003 · W5IND @ TB38–35IND

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTB–IND
TBQ1 15:001476Field goal3–0
INDQ1 7:281042Field goal3–3
TBQ1 3:0136Turnover3–3
INDQ1 1:49441Touchdown3–10
TBQ1 0:113-11Punt3–10
INDQ2 13:511062Touchdown3–17
TBQ2 9:36310Punt3–17
INDQ2 7:2236Turnover3–17
TBQ2 6:33316Touchdown10–17
INDQ2 5:0830Punt10–17
TBQ2 4:40730Punt10–17
INDQ2 1:44740Missed field goal10–17
INDQ3 15:001057Field goal10–20
TBQ3 10:01634Punt10–20
INDQ3 6:09940Turnover on downs10–20
TBQ3 1:46960Touchdown17–20
INDQ4 12:501085Touchdown17–27
TBQ4 7:30869Field goal20–27
INDQ4 4:1049Punt20–27
TBQ4 2:2148Turnover20–27
INDQ4 1:29213End of half20–27

Box score

Individual performances

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Baker Mayfield20/3019921
Kyle Trask0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rachaad White151006.70
Baker Mayfield3144.70
Chase Edmonds11111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Evans69702
Chris Godwin Jr.37450
Cade Otton44450
Trey Palmer45170
Payne Durham11120
Rachaad White22100
David Moore0100
Chase Edmonds0100

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Gardner Minshew24/4125101

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jonathan Taylor15916.12
Zack Moss8556.90
Gardner Minshew362.01
Isaiah McKenzie133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Michael Pittman10131070
Josh Downs513430
Mo Alie-Cox11300
Will Mallory23290
Alec Pierce46270
Zack Moss23150
Kylen Granson0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.54.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Buccaneers.

Half-point at risk

7.48%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.0%

Expected total

43.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.80
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin+1.47