2023 · Week 12
Final
Lucas Oil Stadium · closed · fieldturf
Closing spread
IND -2.5
Total
45
Model margin
+1.5est.
IND perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Colts
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.008EPA / play-0.025
- 40.5%Success rate41.5%
- +0.110EPA / dropback+0.030
- -0.166EPA / rush-0.108
- 8.6%Explosive rate8.6%
- +0.25CPOE-3.92
- 42.2%Third-down rate34.4%
- 55.7%Red-zone TD rate57.1%
- 1.86Points / drive1.78
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 55.3 points. IND are 5-1-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 20/30 | 199 | 2 | 1 |
| Kyle Trask | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rachaad White | 15 | 100 | 6.7 | 0 |
| Baker Mayfield | 3 | 14 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Chase Edmonds | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Evans | 6 | 9 | 70 | 2 |
| Chris Godwin Jr. | 3 | 7 | 45 | 0 |
| Cade Otton | 4 | 4 | 45 | 0 |
| Trey Palmer | 4 | 5 | 17 | 0 |
| Payne Durham | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Rachaad White | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| David Moore | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Chase Edmonds | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gardner Minshew | 24/41 | 251 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Taylor | 15 | 91 | 6.1 | 2 |
| Zack Moss | 8 | 55 | 6.9 | 0 |
| Gardner Minshew | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 1 |
| Isaiah McKenzie | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Pittman | 10 | 13 | 107 | 0 |
| Josh Downs | 5 | 13 | 43 | 0 |
| Mo Alie-Cox | 1 | 1 | 30 | 0 |
| Will Mallory | 2 | 3 | 29 | 0 |
| Alec Pierce | 4 | 6 | 27 | 0 |
| Zack Moss | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Kylen Granson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
7.48%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.0%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.80
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+1.47